Bastille Day

 

Xerxes, famed anonymous left-wing columnist, appears to believe democracy is doomed. He foresees only two possibilities: either sudden collapse, or slow decline. His evidence is the January 6 trespass in the US Capitol, and the Freedom Convoy in Ottawa last February.

I think instead the arc of history favours the growth of democracy. It has to do with the advance of communications technology. Before the invention of movable type, and in general poverty, the scarcity of information demanded government by the few who were educated and therefore in a position to understand the issues and options. There were small democracies long ago, in Greece, Mesopotamia, and the Nordic countries, but these tended to depend on the institution of slavery. Free voting men were an elite minority of the overall population.

With printing, information became more plentiful, and representative democracy become more plausible. The common man was now informed enough at least to be capable of selecting his preferred more learned experts. This took centuries to develop, because it took the printing press centuries to spread and generate a large enough corpus of cheap information. And printing technology improved; benefitting like other tasks from the mechanization of the Industrial Revolution in the 18th and 19th centuries. The Industrial Revolution also, in increasing wealth, gave more people the leisure to read. So things really took off then.

With the Internet, in principle, information is now again becoming exponentially more available. This time it will not take centuries; only years.

The inevitable upshot will be something closer to direct democracy. Experts will be largely replaced by expert systems, available to everyone.

We are commonly told that automation will make the lower classes unemployable. But the opposite is more likely to happen, and is happening. It is making the ruling classes redundant.

Brexit, the election of Trump, the Ottawa Freedom convoy, the January 6th trespass in the US Capitol building, and the current Dutch farmer protests, are, I think, early eruptions of this new and probably unstoppable trend to direct popular government. The emperor is being revealed in his nakedness, and the peasants are gathering their pitchforks. 

It is not as peaceful as it should be, because of the resistance of the privileged to losing their power. The natural reaction is to double down. We saw the same after the invention of printing. First, the aristocrats countered with a new ideology of the “divine right of kings,” and grew more, not less, autocratic. Kings tried to strip powers from the nobles, once the nobles were proven useless, rather than passing it to the people. But over time this was unsustainable in competition with those nations that bent early to the winds of democracy.

We are similarly seeing many governments around the world suddenly become more autocratic; sadly including Canada. But this will be similarly unsustainable.

We live in interesting times.