Call Me, Maybe?

An interesting and perhaps overlooked aspect to the recent provincial elections in Quebec, New Brunswick, and Ontario, is that in all three, the party on the right significantly overperformed their polling numbers.

So, of course, did Donald Trump in the last US presidential election.

It looks as though “Shy Tory Syndrome” is real: people who intend to vote for the right-wing candidate are less inclined to tell pollsters how they will vote. Or else the polling model being used is flawed. Polling has become much trickier over the past few years, because of cell phones and people being less inclined to answer a call from an unknown number.