The State of the World This Friday

I suppose it is too obvious to say that war involving North Korea is unlikely. There in nothing in it for North Korea or her government but suicide, and nothing in it for South Korea or the US. The one danger, and it is real, is that those in charge in North Korea – i.e., Kim Jong Un – are so completely sheltered from reality that they actually believe they can win such a war. We've seen it before: Saddam Hussein.

Meanwhile, events in Egypt may herald the end of “radical Islam.” The Muslim Brotherhood have the misfortune of having been left holding the bag during a disastrous period of chaos and economic recession. Actual rule has already discerdited political Islamism among the people of Iran, reputedly. Mosque attendance in Iran has fallen through the floor; it might imply supporting the government. Egypt may do the same for the Arab world.

On top of that, political Islamism's sources of funding may soon be drying up. It has been boosted by Middle Eastern oil wealth. The fracking revolution in North America looks to me likely to force down the price of oil soon and for the foreseeable future, taking a lot of that money out of the system. 

In any case, Islamism has always looked to me like a retrograde movement, an attempt to slam the door on a perceived cultural threat from globalization. By their nature, such movements tend not to succeed and tend to collapse suddenly. I, for one, hope that Islam itself is not tainted by it all in the end.

I expect Europe to continue to coast downhill. Isn't it obvious, with the latest crisis in Cyprus, that things there are steadily getting worse? It's only a matter of time before the Euro falls apart, and that will cause some dislocations. Things will not really be able to start getting better until that happens.

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