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The Canadian election is getting far more interesting than I expected. Some thoughts:
A lot of the NDP surge, I suspect, is a sympathy vote. It's Jack Layton's cane and bout with cancer. Especially in Quebec, voters are sentimental about such things. To their credit.
Some if it is also a Canadian equivalent to the Tea Party. In these times, it is not advantageous to have a profile as the "Natural Governing Party." At the same time, the Conservatives are in government, and so not the obvious recipients of a protest vote against the powers that be. The NDP becomes the obvious "none of the above" choice, since Reform is gone.
The Liberals are staring at the real possibility of sharing the fate of the British Liberal Party. If the NDP gets past them once, they may establish themselves as the clear left-wing alternative, as happened in the UK, and the Liberals fade to the chronic third-party status the NDP has suffered until now.
But can the Liberals even continue to exist, if this happens? Since it has scant chance of power, a third party must be held together by an ideological core. Does the Liberal Party really still have an ideological core, at least sufficiently distinct from the NDP's? Even to the extent that the old PCs did? Or has it lately only been a vehicle for power, the party of the ruling class, easily assimilating its Scott Brisons and Bob Raes from either side of the supposed left-right divide?
A lot of the NDP surge, I suspect, is a sympathy vote. It's Jack Layton's cane and bout with cancer. Especially in Quebec, voters are sentimental about such things. To their credit.
Some if it is also a Canadian equivalent to the Tea Party. In these times, it is not advantageous to have a profile as the "Natural Governing Party." At the same time, the Conservatives are in government, and so not the obvious recipients of a protest vote against the powers that be. The NDP becomes the obvious "none of the above" choice, since Reform is gone.
The Liberals are staring at the real possibility of sharing the fate of the British Liberal Party. If the NDP gets past them once, they may establish themselves as the clear left-wing alternative, as happened in the UK, and the Liberals fade to the chronic third-party status the NDP has suffered until now.
But can the Liberals even continue to exist, if this happens? Since it has scant chance of power, a third party must be held together by an ideological core. Does the Liberal Party really still have an ideological core, at least sufficiently distinct from the NDP's? Even to the extent that the old PCs did? Or has it lately only been a vehicle for power, the party of the ruling class, easily assimilating its Scott Brisons and Bob Raes from either side of the supposed left-right divide?
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