My Track Record as a Prophet

A year ago, in a post aptly named “The Year in Wild Guesses,” I gave my predictions for 2008. So—how did I do?

I was afraid you'd ask. Not very well.

1. Republican John McCain beats Democrat John Edwards to win presidency of the US.

I expected some big gaffe or scandal to take out Obama even before the Democratic nomination. Bad call. I made the same mistake with Clinton's reelection in 1996. I was sure there was another sex scandal waiting to be discovered. I was right; Monica Lewinsky. But it showed up after the election. I suspect Obama will turn out to be implicated somehow in the current Blagovich scandal in Illinois. But it won't matter that much—he's just been elected, and nobody will want to put the nation through an impeachment proceeding so soon after an election and in such troubled economic times. It will more or less be ignored, and will set a very unfortunate precedent.

2.No federal election in Canada.

Wrong again. I did not foresee the very bad economic turn, and so did not foresee Harper calling the election because he figured the economy was about to sour badly. As it turned out, he probably should not have called the election, though. He gained nothing by it.

3.No US or world recession in 2008.

Wrong again. My gut feeling, though, is still that the economic news will turn out to be less bad than it looks now. My instincts say the economic fundamentals are strong, that this is a structural issue that does not change the underlying economic realities. Once the necessary restructuring is complete, I feel things will come roaring back.

4. The government of at least one of the following countries implodes: China, Cuba, North Korea, Myanmar.

Did not happen—but all seem shakier now than a year ago. I make the same prediction for the coming year. It's just a matter of time. The current economic downturn is more dangerous for China than for any other major economy.

5.News of a demographic shift in the developed world—more babies being born.

No clear evidence of this yet either.

6. A spate of books responds to the atheist books of the past year, and sells well. Militant atheism becomes a bit of a laughing stock.

No sign of this either. Militant atheism has just kind of faded—not with a bang, but a whimper.

7. More breakthroughs in biotechnology. At least one major cure.

I think this one happened. Most significantly, a trachea transplant using the patient's own cells, tricked into becoming stem cells, to create the new trachea. This is major: it suggests that ultimately, all human organs can be replicated from the patient's own cells, and transplanted without any rejection issues. We will then be made entirely of replaceable parts. If one part wears out, back to the shop for a new one.

8.Violence in Iraq continues to decline. Iraq is generally reevaluated as a success. Bush’s popularity rises.

I was right on Iraq; but not on Bush's popularity. The economic crisis saw to that.

9. Muslim militancy visibly on the decline.

Is it fair to say this? Probably not, with the assault on Mumbai. I think it is losing support among the broad consensus of Muslims; but I'm not sure how visible that is yet.

10. Microsoft will lose profitability; Google will grow.

Right on this. Microsoft is on the way out, and I think that's pretty clear now. I think Google will keep growing, but the hottest tech company in the new year may be Nintendo. Mark my words: the Wii controller system is going to unlock a lot of cool new things in the next little while. It's going to be bigger than the Graphical User Interface.


In sum, I did quite badly. But it was, as these things go, a very unpredictable year, a year of many surprises. I think everyone else who tried to predict 2008 did badly too.

I feel even less confident going into 2009. Things have been changing so quickly, it is hard to guess yet where they might end up. Here are the few additional thoughts I do have:

1.Russia is in for a bad year. Its newfound assertiveness cannot be sustained.

I think Russia's recent rise has been funded by petroleum prices. With oil now dramatically down, those cheques can no longer be covered. Russia must pull in its horns quickly, or it will hit financial trouble. In addition, the Russian government is in an awkward situation. So long as things have been going well, Medvedev as president and Putin as PM have appeared to be working together. But ultimately, they are threats to one another personally. Their jockeying for power may cause both to make decisions that are not primarily in Russia's interest. And it will become more tempting to break ranks if things start going wrong. Even without the decline in oil prices, the general economic downturn will make it hard for Russia to sustain an image of general progress.

2. Since neither Israel nor the US have done anything yet over the Iran nuclear program, I do not think they will. They have missed their best chance, if there ever was one. Bluff called. Iran will go nuclear.

3. In Canada, the political situation is fascinating. I predict another election in the new year.

Will the proposed Liberal-NDP-Bloc coalition take power? I think not.

If I were Michael Ignatieff, I would not see anything in it for me. Defeat the government, and the GG may instead call an election. The Liberals are not prepared financially for another election; and the polls currently look bad for them. If, on the other hand, the GG grants the coalition a chance to take power, what is gained? It would look very bad: taking the prime ministership without ever facing the people, or even the rank and file of your own party. And Ignatieff hardly comes across as a man of the people to begin with. The legacy of the last similar coalition—the King-Byng-Meighen affair—suggests the voters would punish him at the next election, when it came. So, if I were Ignatieff, I would be looking hard for a reason to back out. The Conservatives are likely to give him one in their formal budget.

From then on, though, the Tory government would be balancing on a knife edge. If the polls turn bad for them, the opposition will enthusiastically vote no confidence. If, conversely, the polls turn very good, they will want to get out of this situation by calling an election. With the economy in bad shape, the polls should be quite volatile.

I do not have a strong sense of who would win this election, because the circumstances in which it would be held are unclear, but I think the Conservatives are the likelier bet. Harper's background in economics and steady image are selling points if people are worried about the economy; Ignatieff has no special appeal in this regard. I think the coalition talk may have permanently tarnished the Liberals—they are no longer credible as the party of national unity. They are hoping for some bounce from Obama's success in the US, but I think Canadians are too cautious by nature for this. They will want to watch Obama'a administration for a few years before they decide whether it is the right thing for Canada. Only then, if their judgement is still favourable, will they decide whether Ignatieff or the Liberals look similar—and may decide they don't.

In any case, Happy New Year!