The Republican Advantage

Here’s another reason why Obama is in trouble.

In a two-party race, you need over 50% of the vote to win. The Democrats have managed more than 50% of the vote for their Presidential candidate only twice since 1944. Clinton never got there. He won, twice, because Ross Perot split the Republican vote.

The two Democrats who managed the feat were Lyndon Johnson in 68, and Jimmy Carter in 76. Both elections involved exceptional circumstances: the Kennedy assassination in the first case, Watergate in the second.

This year, there is no significant split in the Republican vote, and there are no exceptional circumstances.

Why do the Republican presidential candidates have such an advantage? For one thing, because the Democrats are the party of the professional classes—fewer of their leaders have executive experience. And the presidency is an executive position. For another, the Democrats tend more than Republicans to appeal to special interests and specific client groups; and the President is, as head of state, a symbol of the unified nation.

The other side of this coin: the Democrats, the party of lawyers, are naturally dominant in the legislative and judiciary branches. This being so, it is wise of the public to vote Republican for President.