US Presidential Picks

Way back when on this site, I predicted a final faceoff in the US Presidential stakes between John McCain and John Edwards.

I think the Edwards prediction still looks good. Yes, he is behind Clinton and Obama in the polls, but he is a master of retail politicking. He is leading in Iowa currently, and second in NH. Now look what is likely to happen if this holds: he comes out as winner in Iowa, and gets a media bump from it that pulls him up even further in New Hampshire. This establishes him as the clear alternative to Hillary. Everyone by then (indeed, by now) is tired of Hillary, and looking for excitement--the Democrats hate going with the frontrunner. A good collection of big primaries should come up next (we’re not sure about this yet); with luck while he is still favoured in the media and before the knives come out. Even better if some of them are in the South, where he is a native son. The momentum may well pull him all the way.

On the Republican side, the story is cloudier. My McCain prediction was based on the assumption that Giuliani really didn't want to get back into active politics and probably would not run. Wrong; and this changes everything. I had noted a vaccuum on the right; with two prominent moderates running, Giuliani and McCain, that vaccuum becomes even more attractive. If one candidate can clearly claim it, it will mean a win for them.

But we now have a struggle developing for that turf: Romney, Gingrich, Thompson, none of them obviously likely to surpass the other two. If Gingrich and Thompson both stay out, that should mean Romney, but Romney still has a big job to convince conservatives he is one of them. If Thompson gets in, he will be a formidable candidate, and could go all the way. Gingrich looks to me more like a VP, but also has the strongest potential for an ideologically insurgent candidacy.

Can’t call it; might as well, for now, stick with my McCain prediction. He’s currently suffering from the unpopularity of the Iraq War, and his laudably moral stand in support. But if the Iraqi situation suddenly looks better, this liability becomes a big asset.