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Andrew Coyne points out that, in a Leger poll done this week, 77% of Canadians rejected the contention that Quebec is a nation.
Contrasting that with the near-unanimous vote in the Commons shows, once again, that Canada has a ruling class with its own agenda that is heedless of the opinion of the mass of Canadians. “Like being in the court of Bourbon kings,” Coyne suggests. As with Meech Lake, something’s gotta give.
My suspicion is that, this time, it’s going to split the Liberals. The contrast, after all, is most dramatic there: 72% of Liberals nationwide reject Quebec as a nation. A lot of Liberals are Liberals because of Pierre Trudeau, and his doctrine of federalism. Imagine, now, Michael Ignatieff getting the leadership, with his strong support of the idea. Or, for that matter, Bob Rae, almost as supportive, and identified more or less with the Chretien wing of the party. With the factionalism already evident, after years of feuds between Chretienites and Martinites, the temptation may be very strong for some to either sit on their hands next election, or walk away, or start their own party.
An interesting possibility: what if Ignatieff’s vote actually goes down on the second ballot? It could happen. Delegates are pledged for one ballot only. Ignatieff’s campaign has had troubles since delegate selection. The “nation” issue is an emotional one, the sort of issue that, for some, trumps all others. What if his vote actually goes down?
A rumour has it that the rival Rae and Ignatieff camps are so afraid of Dion that they will tell some of their supporters to vote for Kennedy on the first two ballots, to make sure that he is ahead of Dion on the crucial third. Interesting, but risky, strategy. With the “nation” issue, Kennedy may see a late rally to his side anyway. So what happens if he does much better on the first and second ballots than anticipated, while Ignatieff’s vote actually goes down?
Ignatieff speaks last at the convention. In this fluid situation, the speeches could be crucial, and speaking last is a big advantage. If Ignatieff can pull off a good performance, it could make a big difference.
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Macleans had Innovative Research Group poll the standings of the Big 4 contenders (1,495 Canadians between November 23 and 27, margin of error plus minus 2.5%).
Some snapshots:
Ignatieff had "relatively unimpressive showing" in answer to the question "is he the kind of leader who will protect the interests of people like me". Bob Rae and Dion came out on top (25% agree he is), Kennedy (21%) and Ignatieff only 17%. Bob Rae and Ignatieff had the same total of those who strongly disagreed or did not know (41% and 42% respectively).
"One striking finding for Mr Dion is that he is the least liked Liberal candidate among Bloc supporter. This no doubt relates to pas role as a federalist champion and his leadership on the Clarity Act." 66% of Bloc respondents disagreed that Dion would protect the interests of people like them (for Rae it was 54%, Kennedy 48% and Ignatieff 53%).
"The assumed leadership front-runner, Michael Ignatieff, only holds his own with current Liberal supporters and has little appeal with supporters of other parties and those currently undecided".
"Bob Rae also does well with current Liberal voters. He also polls very strongly amongst supporters of his former party, the NDP."
Only 31% of Liberals believe Ignatieff is the kind of leader to protect the interests of people like them (Rae: 51%, a sizeable 20% more than Ignatieff).
Amongst the NDP, only 11% think Ignatieff will protect their interests, while 39% thought Bob Rae would (28% more than Ignatieff).
A whopping 53% of NDP disagreed that Ignatieff was the kind of leader to protect the interests of people like them (Rae only 26%).
The news for Harper is not good either: just over 35% of voters say they are more comfortable with the idea of a Conservative majority now then they used to be (virtually the same number who voted Tory in January), while 49% are NOT more comfortable. That Harper pond just is not growing any bigger ...
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