Breaking Up is Not That Hard to Do

The papers warn of the danger of civil war in Iraq.

I wonder: what’s the problem, really, if Iraq splits up? Why does the US have any obligation, or any vested interest, in keeping it together? Why are the people of Iraq any better off?

The Kurds are a stateless people, no less than the Jews once were. Wouldn’t it be reasonable for them to have their own state? If it were so urgent in the case of the Jews, why not for the Kurds?

Iran would be upset, perhaps; they have their own Kurdish minority. But the US should have no scruples these days about upsetting Iran. Turkey would be upset, for the same reason. But Turkey did not allow the Americans to station there for the push into Iraq; it is reasonable to argue that they waived their right to be considered in the settlement as a result. Moreover, if Turkey is to enter the EU, as it plans, it needs to show more consideration for its ethnic minorities. This would require them to confront the issue of Kurds in Turkey wishing to separate—if they do--in any case.

There is also no Shiite Arab state. The Shiites of southern Iraq might therefore have some legitimate claim to independent statehood as well. There are many independent states in the Arab world which are less ethnically distinct their neighbours than the Iraqi Sunnis from Iraqi Shias: Jordan and Syria, for example, or the UAE and Qatar.

Iraq has no long history as an independent and a united country: it was a convenient administrative division for the British and the Turks, and not much more. Trifling with old colonial boundaries is in general not a good idea, because endless strife could result. Nevertheless, the British were prepared to work out partition in the case of India, to satisfy ethnic demands. Singapore split from Malaya. French Indochina became three states.

The Americans might have some concern that a divided Iraq be too vulnerable to an expansionist Iran. The Shi’ite south, in particular, might want to move into Iran’s orbit.

But so what? Again, if that is what the people of Southern Iraq want, isn’t that their business?

As to military threats from Iran, a military alliance with the US should preclude that. Quite likely at less cost than a struggle to keep Iraq together.

Why worry?