The Yellow Peril

Extremely alarming—I would say alarmist—piece in the Washington Times about China. It theorizes about a Chinese invasion of Taiwan in two years, leading to war with the US. It calls China a “fascist state.” It suggests China will be driven to war in any event by its growing need for oil:

http://www.washtimes.com/specialreport/20050626-122138-1088r.htm

To which I respond:

China is not going to attack Taiwan in the next two years. China is nothing if not patient, and it would screw up the Beijing Olympics.

Obviously, since it claims Taiwan as its territory, China is going to want to have the military power to take it if it should ever come to blows. What country would not? This does not demonstrate an aggressive intent. China had the military ability to take either Macao or Hong Kong or both for many years and did not.

If it came to war with the US two years from now, the US would crush China. The Chinese I know themselves are disparaging about China’s military abilities. And a sea/air power will always take a land power: the US can cut off China’s supply of strategic materials and oil at will. They might take Taiwan, but they would not be able to hold it against a determined US.

And this, of course, explains China’s need for a further military buildup. It needs the ability, if trouble came, to protect its oil supply: as it becomes more reliant on foreign oil, it needs power and influence in the Indian Ocean. No surprise if it is building a blue-water navy.

If and when China takes an aggressive stance in the world, certain natural checks and balances click in: the US would not stand alone. Japan might well rearm; India obviously has its own interests in the Indian Ocean. Smaller but quite significant powers would also be concerned: Vietnam, South Korea, Indonesia, Australia, Pakistan.

Even if its intent is ominous—and we have no indication it is--for its own best interests, China will for the foreseeable future have to tread lightly and preserve a smiling face.

By the time this is no longer so, the tide of development should have swept India, let alone the US, into rough parity.

Meantime, for how long would any present “Fascist” tendencies, if they exist, continue in China? Might China instead fairly seamlessly segue into a more democratic, liberal, and business-oriented country by the time any realistic possibilities of large-scale aggression emerged? As have South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, Indonesia in their day?

Because, over the long term, Fascist countries are really left with only two alternatives. Either switch to a more open system, or be left behind by their neighbours in the race for development.

And economic prosperity does lead fairly relentlessly to political liberalization.

Me, I’m not worried.