Playing the Indian Card

Monday, October 18, 2004

Lynne Cheney Wins Presidential Debates

A good analysis of Kerry's drug plan, from a California blogger:

"Also, apparently this came up as a recipe for cheaper healthcare:

(1) Back empty delivery trucks up to Pfizer factories.
(2) Fill trucks with cartons of newly-produced drugs.
(3) Drive north on the nearest interstate and cross the Canadian border; allow drugs to be bathed in mysterious Canadian 'cheap-o-rays'.
(4) Turn trucks around, drive south, unload drugs in U.S. warehouses.

Obviously I'm simplifying -- the real scheme would have more steps and be considerably stupider."

The whole concept is absurd on its face: Kerry says these are US-made drugs, but re-importing them from Canada will make them cheaper.

As the debate sinks in, Bush seems to be picking up ground. Effectively, he won the third debate, inasmuch as people seem to look at him more favourably and at Kerry less favourably as a result of it.

I just checked the three ranking flash sources, and they all show Bush gaining ground over the past forty-eight hours or so: Rasmussen, Iowa Electronic Markets, and Tradesports. CNN just came out with a new poll showing Bush has regained a lead, and a full eight points among likely voters.

It was all very strange. First, all the commentators said Bush won handily. Then the early polls came in showing a win for Kerry. Now the polls are showing Bush gaining support immediately after the debate.

Maybe the commentators, being more experienced and more aware of the issues, just spotted it faster. It usually takes a few days to be sure what the public reaction really is.

I think Kerry sounds and looks very good in a superficial way, but it is jive talking. It comes apart under analysis. As with the drug plan above.

Kerry also seems to be under fire for his comment on Mary Cheney. It is becoming the one real gaffe of the debates. This is what matters most, and sticks in everyone’s mind: a revealing gaffe. Two years from now, I suspect everyone will say Kerry lost the debates decisively, that he lost in the third debate, and that he lost with this gaffe.

Lynne Cheney should be credited with the best line in the debates. It will be the one remembered on the other side: “this is not a good man.” I think that is likely to sink in. It works on Kerry the same way “would you buy a used car from this man” worked on Nixon. It works better because it plays up one of Bush’s great strengths: all else aside, Bush is a likable guy.

My prediction in August was that Bush would win the election by eleven points. That was counting on his winning the debates. If I am right in reading the debates as an ultimate Bush win, I stick by that. CNN shows an eight-point lead already among likely voters, and the Bush trend line up.

Bush by eleven.

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