Predictions for the New Year

My record for predicting the upcoming year is right up there with the experts—usually wrong. I didn’t even try last year.

But I am feeling more optimistic about the future than I have for a while. I do not say these things will all happen within the next 12 months, but here is what I see:

Russia will decisively lose the war in Ukraine. The fall of great powers, or lesser powers, tends to come in at least two stages—first they lose a big one, then they do something reckless a couple of decades later, determined to regain their stature. This overreach leads to the decisive final collapse. Witness Germany in WWI and WWII; Saddam in Gulf Wars 1 and 2; the three Punic Wars; Napoleon at Leipzig, then at Waterloo.  Russia is in stage two now, following the collapse of the Soviet Union in 91.

I regularly predict that the governments of Russia, China, or Iran will fall. It will happen soon; perhaps not this year, but soon. By my calculations, centrally-managed regimes last no more than one lifetime before the rot forces a collapse—about seventy years. That’s how long the USSR lasted—1917-1991, 74 years. The CCP has been in power since 1949, 76 years. They are in the last throes. 

This may provoke them to start a war to forestall collapse. I feel there is a good chance that this year they will try to invade Taiwan. That often happens when a regime is facing the end: a last desperate lunge for more resources and more capital to keep the lights on. 

But if they do, they will fail. Here’s why: the advance in drone technology gives huge advantage to the defense and in particular makes any sea invasion, requiring large massed vessels and war machines, immensely vulnerable. Given that Taiwan is taking lessons from Ukraine, they could easily with their industrial potential and technical skills produce a drone fleet that could sink Chinese hopes, even without US or Japanese intervention.

The US economy is about to boom. Elon Musk, who is in a good position to make such predictions, expects it to start growing at unprecedented levels within the next two years. This seems a safe bet, due to dramatic improvements in productivity from AI, robotics, and self-driving vehicles. At the same time, the US has a pro-business government in place, which will not choke this growth with regulations.

Indeed, just having Trump in there trying new things and shaking things up can be expected to give the US economy a boost of optimism. Studies suggest that if a company does ANYTHING to shake up standard procedures, esprit de corps rises and productivity improves. Optimism is infectious.

This being so, the Republicans should hold the two Houses of Congress in the midterms. Historically, the ruling party almost always loses the midterms, but if strong economic growth becomes clear by then, I think this will make the difference. Especially as evidence of waste and corruption under Democrat regimes is emerging.

I think the government of Cuba will fall. I think Rubio has Cuba in his sights, and this is part of what is going on between the US and Venezuela—Venezuela has been propping Cuba up. Russia is occupied elsewhere, and is in no position to step in. China may be having their own problems. It seems a good opportunity for the US to put the screws in, and it would be quite a feather in Trump’s red MAGA cap if he managed to end the Communist hold on Cuba. Ending the Maduro regime in Venezuela may only be a bonus.

The popular opinion throughout the developed world is turning hard and fast against mass migration. I expect deportation to become the common policy throughout the developed world. Mass immigration was governments’ solution to population collapse. Soon, such fears will look shortsighted, as AI and robotics allow rapid development with fewer workers. Importing low-skilled bodies is just adding liabilities, apart from risks of cultural collapse.

I get the sense we are on the cusp of a major breakthrough against cancer. This too will reduce the supposed need for immigrants, by extending lifespans. I expect to hear more on this in the coming year.

I get the sense we are on the cusp of a major breakthrough in nuclear energy. I expect to hear more on this too in the coming year. Energy could get a lot cheaper.

This will also take the remaining wind out of the turbines of the “climate change” lobby—already back on their heels.  We will stop hearing much about climate change, and there will be no more appetite for draconian measures by governments in the name of reducing carbon emissions.

This will remove from governments their strongest argument for grabbing more power for themselves and suppressing the growing populist movement. Accordingly, I expect more populist regimes to be elected over the coming year, and the popularity of the remaining “progressive” regimes to continue to fall. Where elections are delayed, there will be growing civil unrest. 

Now let’s see if I got any of this right.