An Early and Tentative Endorsement

Rumour is that Justin Trudeau’s Liberals are planning a big spending Throne Speech when Parliament comes back from prorogation.

This makes sense. The BQ has said they will vote no confidence. The Conservatives can be expected to as a matter of course. Promising lots of new spending on some of the NDP’s priorities is the obvious way to make it hard for the socialist party to vote against them. The NDP are reputedly strapped for funds in any case, and probably would not want an election.

But there are also rumours that the Liberals actually want to go to the people. Promises of big spending can also be to get votes. If they aren’t voted out, they retain the right to call an election unilaterally—on the premise that such an ambitious new programme needs a mandate.

Why would they want an election now, in the midst of the WE scandal?

Perhaps because worse is to come, and they know it. Perhaps also because, as things stand, it looks as though the US will soon have a COVID vaccine, and the UK will soon have a vaccine, and China, and Russia, and Canada will not. I don’t know the details, but it looks to me as though the government was counting on a co-production with China, and China double-crossed them and is keeping it all for themselves. Now they’ve missed the boat on reserving other most promising vaccines, and there will be hell to pay.

If they can get in a quick election call by the end of September, they might make it to the ballot box before the debacle becomes obvious. Bad as their prospects might look now, they might soon look worse.

If all this is right, it seems urgent to back Erin O’Toole. Wexit and the PPC may have more attractive platforms for many, but the priority this time around may be to prevent the promised spending spree. And, indeed, prevent a spiral into open conflict like we are seeing in the US. It might be the moment for a moderate figure like O’Toole.