No Justice, No Peace; No Money, No War

Trump has now brokered three peace deals in quick succession: Kosovo and Serbia, UAE and Israel, Bahrain and Israel. Trump is a professional deal maker. Business is about “busy-ness,” about finding ways to get things done. I think we are seeing the value of entrepreneurial skills in government.

The prospects seem good now for an overall end to the Arab-Israeli conflict, a dangerous sword dance that has lasted since 1948. The prospects are also good for an end to Islamist terrorism; the existence of Israel, and the West’s backing for the Jewish state, was the main complaint. We could be seeing another moment like the moment the Berlin Wall fell. The Middle East may fully join the modern world.

For one thing, the rise of Islamism looks a lot like culture shock. Traditions, like people, go a little hysterically nativist on first contact. Culture shock in the face of globalization is a good explanation for Nazism in Germany; perhaps too for Stalinism in Russia, Juche in North Korea, and Maoism in China. These things pass, sooner or later, and things calm down, as the new and foreign grows more familiar. Ideally without Holocausts and world wars. Perhaps this explains the troubles in the Balkans as well--suddenly exposed to the winds after decades behind a curtain of iron.

Along with this, and Trump’s talent for dealmaking, there is another critical factor. Do you remember, gentle reader, when “the Troubles” in Northern Ireland seemed insoluble? They went on for decades. Then they suddenly ended in 1998, with the Good Friday accord. Now all anyone worries about is whether there will still be an open border, without any kind of border check, after the UK leaves the EU. What happened?

The money ran out. The IRA was funded by the Soviets, then by Libya. Gaddhafi pulled the funding. The IRA wilted, and Sinn Fein was forced to go the political route. To everyone’s benefit, including Sinn Fein.

A similar consideration probably stands smiling deferentially behind the present peace agreements. Thanks to fracking in the US and elsewhere, the money is running out to fund the eternal conflicts in the Middle East; and Islamic terrorism worldwide. The wasta, the leverage, the Gulf States had over the rest of the world, that needed their oil, was considerable, and is now gone. If they are going to keep their profitable economies going, they need to work harder at making and keeping friends, at encouraging investment and trade.

Bahrain joining in the deal feels significant. Bahrain is nearly a wholly-owned subsidiary of Saudi Arabia. During the Arab Spring, the Saudi Army went in to restore order. Bahrain would not have signed on without Saudi prior approval, and so looks like a stalking horse. Probably the Saudi royals are watching public reaction before committing themselves.

With the Magic Kingdom in, the rest of the GCC is overwhelmingly likely to follow: Oman, Kuwait, Qatar. Along with Egypt and Jordan, already signatories to peace deals, this is the centre of gravity for the Arab world. Others will probably come in as well.

A general Arab-Israeli rapprochement then puts critical pressure on Iran, already in financial trouble and vulnerable to civil unrest.

All this raises a further consideration.

The eternal conflict in Northern Ireland, the Middle East quagmire, and Islamic terrorism around the world, depended heavily on funding, generally funding from abroad. So heavily that, funding withdrawn, peace breaks out.

Who is funding the current conflict in the USA, from Antifa and Black Lives Matter?

Someone certainly is.