A Journal of the Plague Year

I have had an intuition for some time that the pandemic would effectively end in September. I think that may be happening. Good news is coming in quickly.

- The death rate is apparently much lower than feared. Something like 0.3%. Many, if not most, people who get the virus have few or mild symptoms. This is why the death rate looked higher before, perhaps—we were not testing enough.

- Studies suggest now that something like 50% of the population has natural immunity.

- New studies show Vitamin D is effective against the virus. Basically, people who die from it are people who have a Vitamin D deficiency. A cheap and readily available prophylactic and cure is suddenly available.

- New large studies suggest again that hydroxychloroquine works too. If only we can get governments to approve its use…

- Testing has improved, and could soon be far better—using trained dogs, using new faster and cheaper tests. This alone could stop the pandemic. Quarantine the sick, and everyone else can resume their business.

- There are rumours that we should have at least one highly effective vaccine by November. The US is apparently expecting two by then. India expects one. The UK expects one. Russia and China are already vaccinating, although we do not know their vaccines are effective..

- There is growing evidence that we can hit herd immunity at only about 20% of the population—either through vaccination or through contracting the virus.

- The virus seems to have died back in China, Taiwan, Hong Kong and Thailand, where it struck first. This suggests that it may be about to die back spontaneously elsewhere.

- The US economy seems to be roaring back even without the virus beaten.

Unfortunately, the virus leaves a bitter aftertaste--of how we did not come together to fight it. Instead, the bad guys took advantage of the opportunity.