Maple DOGE

 

Actual unretouched photograph courtesy of Craiyon

I think Trump’s DOGE is a powerful idea that would make a great campaign issue for Pierre Poilievre if he has the nerve to grab it. Of course, the Liberals would respond by pointing out that Poilievre is “taking a page from the Trump playbook.” And Trump is far from a popular figure in Canada.Poilievre would have to be ready to wear this.

I think he must. He is going to have to wear this anyway. No matter what he does or says, because he is ideologically aligned with Trump, the Liberals will say this. The smart thing to do is to walk right into it. Be a leader, not a follower; attack, don’t defend. Explain why this idea of Trump’s is a good idea, and should be done here.

The Liberals cannot co-opt this issue, as they have done with the carbon tax, because the bureaucracy is their base. It also works well against Carney, because Carney is the ultimate bureaucrat. Suddenly his supposed expertise, which looks good for confronting Trump, works against him. He is a swamp creature. And for the common taxpayer, it has to be a winner. Week by week, new revelations about ridiculous spending. And with them the hope of lower taxes, without a reduction in services.

Introducing an attention-grabbing proposal like this could take the focus off the Trump tariffs, which are a losing issue for the Conservatives. And it could remedy the problem of looking dull and squishy in light of Trump’s dramatic actions next door.

Kevin O’Leary seems to me the best outsider to enlist to manage the inquisition; he seems ready and eager for some such role. He has a talent for publicity, a public reputation for financial probity, and experience as an entrepreneur and venture capitalist. Below him, he should have the smarts to hire some guys who previously worked with Musk on DOGE. If this sounds too flashy for Canadian tastes, Stephen Harper might be up for the role. He is at least a trained economist, and the finances looked much more sound under his tenure.

An Early and Tentative Endorsement

Rumour is that Justin Trudeau’s Liberals are planning a big spending Throne Speech when Parliament comes back from prorogation.

This makes sense. The BQ has said they will vote no confidence. The Conservatives can be expected to as a matter of course. Promising lots of new spending on some of the NDP’s priorities is the obvious way to make it hard for the socialist party to vote against them. The NDP are reputedly strapped for funds in any case, and probably would not want an election.

But there are also rumours that the Liberals actually want to go to the people. Promises of big spending can also be to get votes. If they aren’t voted out, they retain the right to call an election unilaterally—on the premise that such an ambitious new programme needs a mandate.

Why would they want an election now, in the midst of the WE scandal?

Perhaps because worse is to come, and they know it. Perhaps also because, as things stand, it looks as though the US will soon have a COVID vaccine, and the UK will soon have a vaccine, and China, and Russia, and Canada will not. I don’t know the details, but it looks to me as though the government was counting on a co-production with China, and China double-crossed them and is keeping it all for themselves. Now they’ve missed the boat on reserving other most promising vaccines, and there will be hell to pay.

If they can get in a quick election call by the end of September, they might make it to the ballot box before the debacle becomes obvious. Bad as their prospects might look now, they might soon look worse.

If all this is right, it seems urgent to back Erin O’Toole. Wexit and the PPC may have more attractive platforms for many, but the priority this time around may be to prevent the promised spending spree. And, indeed, prevent a spiral into open conflict like we are seeing in the US. It might be the moment for a moderate figure like O’Toole.

Federal Election in Canada

Last time.

Okay, so we now have a Canadian federal election.

Things can change quickly in Canuckistan; present polls are not necessarily going to reflect the final outcome. But let's assume they hold.

That would probably result in a Conservative minority government, with the Liberals running third.

Given what recently happened to Britain's Liberal Democrats, I doubt the NDP and Liberals would then try to form a coalition. If the NDP came out as the senior partner, to do so would probably be the end of the Liberal Party. More likely, Justin Trudeau would then resign, and the Liberals would not want to force an election until they had a new leader in place. Harper would have at least a little breathing room, and then face a new vote.

Canadians know Harper pretty well. Trudeau certainly has name recognition, and has been very much in the spotlight for the last year. Opinions are probably mostly formed by now. Mulcair, facing his first election, is probably least well known, and so has the best breakout potential. If he is impressive in the campaign, he has the best shot at a majority government. If he really does poorly as a campaigner, support moves to the Liberals, but odds are, not strongly enough to jump two spaces: it would simply be a Conservative minority with a Liberal instead of an NDP official opposition. If Mulcair neither excels nor chokes, we are probably left with roughly the poll figures we have now.

Ergo:
Likeliest result: Conservative minority, new election within a year or two.
Next most likely result: NDP majority.