The Finish Line

This just in: this is Justin.

Tomorrow morning we will know. All the polls show a Liberal win in the Canadian federal election. Probably a minority, but that makes little difference. The NDP will not join a coalition, but they will support Trudeau’s government for now. Given the ideological similarities between the two parties, it should be fairly easy or the Liberals to stay in power beyond that.

I think this outcome was rather improbable when the writ was dropped. It came about, firstly, because the NDP chose the wrong campaign strategy in trying to cleave to the centre. That set up the Liberals as the natural alternative. The emergence of a clear alternative was always going to be trouble for the Conservatives, because their natural constituency is only about a third of the electorate.

I thought that, if a clear alternative were to emerge, it was most likely to be the NDP. I thought that because Trudeau seemed to be gaffe-prone. But that calculation was always playing the odds. AS it turned out, Trudeau avoided saying anything transparently dumb for the duration.

I expect the NDP to stick with Tom Mulcair. They really don’t have a better option handy, and Mulcair was not the problem this time. He deserves another chance. Harper, on the other hand, is not going to want to stay on, even if he could. The next bit of excitement will be a Conservative leadership race.