Secretariat Laps the Field

Fiorina won it, going away. Two bright but fleeting moments will live in history: her passionate denunciation of Planned Parenthood, and her response to Trump's comments on her looks. Between them, they should end the Donald Trump surge and replace it with a Carly Fiorina surge. I hereby predict that now.

The rules have changed. Debates like this matter more than they used to. The viewership was through the roof.

With both these answers, Fiorina managed to convey real sincerity. As Bill Clinton might have said, sincerity is the most important thing in politics: if you can fake that, you've got it made. But that's not all. At the same time, she looked in her exchange with Trump as though she easily had the mighty Donald's neck in a collar. He looked small and she looked big. That impression will linger.

She also won the exchange with Trump over their respective business careers. You could see his face redden.

In his exchanges with Jeb Bush, on the other hand, I think Trump came off on top. Bush asking Trump to apologize to his wife was lame. It was a predictable politics as usual “gotcha” attempt, cementing the image of Bush as a tired pol of the old school, and it foolishly led into Trump's strength, that of resisting political correctness and defying politics as usual, by allowing him the delicious opportunity to refuse. Again, in their elbowing over casino gambling in Florida, all Bush had was “he said/she said,” but Trump seemed to own him with the comment “More energy tonight. I like that!”

Ben Carson helped himself, I think, by refusing to condemn Trump when the moderators were practically demanding it of him, on the vaccination issue. He handled it with brilliant tact, cementing his image as a non-politician and a nice guy. He has, in this, a lot in common with Ronald Reagan, and it might work very well for him as president. Of course, far from being a non-politician, he was really being politically astute. There is a real constituency out there of parents wanting the right to refuse vaccines. Double win for Carson.

Kasich came across as openly moderate. This may be smart. Everyone else in the field is thundering toward the right fence. By conventional wisdom, this ought to leave a good bit of running room toward the centre, even if this is a relative minority of Republicans. We shall see.

Christie scored by cutting in on Trump and Fiorina to turn the talk away from their records and to the current issues. The problem was, it was cutting in. It was not his place nor his turn. It may not help, given the prior suspicion that Christie is a bit of a bully.

Rubio came across very well, but without the crucial memorable sound bite. The same was so for Huckabee, and Cruz. Just the luck of the draw, and of the questions asked.

The biggest loser on stage was over on the left. Rand Paul again looked like a pipsqueak. His worst moment was his choice of code name, “Justice Never Sleeps.” Too grandiose and self-important by several orders of magnitude. His most memorable moment was Trump's elegant put down of his appearance. He actually looks like a frightened rodent, but this is so evident that Trump did not need to say so.

Walker also looked a bit worse by the end of the evening. His unprovoked, non sequitor attack on Trump as “an apprentice” was another example of hackneyed political operating. It was tone deaf to popular culture, too, because it got the premise of a popular TV show backwards. That can't help Walker with those seeking someone more like themselves. You can't rely on your Harley for that common touch forever.

The worst performers in the debate were the moderators. Almost exclusively, their questions, rather than seeking substance from the candidates, tried to set up personal spats. Or they were pure irrelevancies, the sort of thing you might expect of “Tiger Beat” magazine. What do you think your secret service code name should be? What woman should be on the ten dollar bill?

Really?

None of those stiffs should have a job tomorrow.

But as for Carly Fiorina, she is genuinely beginning to look presidential.