All Bets Are Off

Amazing news: the top three contenders in Iowa, according to the latest poll, are now Trump and Carson, tied, and Carly Fiorina. After them comes Ted Cruz.

I expected Trump’s support to fade. But I did not expect the beneficiary to be Ben Carson.

We have the most qualified Republican field in presidential history, and the Republican electorate is backing the four candidates with the thinnest credentials for the presidency. More or less in order—Carson probably has the least, then Trump, a businessman, then Fiorina, a businesswoman who has at least run for office, and then Cruz, in the senate for just two years.

This is the opposite of what I expected to happen this cycle. I thought that, after the apparent amateurishness of the Obama administration, the mood would be for someone with the greatest gravitas and government experience.

This has to be a full-scale rebellion against the political class. It is not Trump’s brashness or toughness they like: Carson is the opposite of that. They are looking for a Mr. Smith to go to Washington.

If so, the established, experienced candidates cannot make up much ground by fire-breathing or co-opting Trump’s stance on the issues. That’s not the point.

Here’s another kicker. Until now, the Republicans have always been the disciplined party, the ones who would always, in the end, line up behind the establishment choice. I have been assuming this would still be the case.

But according to this poll, in Iowa at least, Trump, Carson, and Fiorina between them have 53% of the vote. That’s an absolute majority, impervious to the establishment coalescing behind any other candidate.

So now, and if this mood holds, it is hard to fathom what is going to happen.

Here’s another wild card to throw into the mix. Everyone’s been talking about a possible Trump third-party candidacy, if he does not win the nomination.

But what about a Bernie Sanders third-party bid, if he does not win the Democratic nomination? On the face of it, that seems more plausible. After all, Sanders isn’t even a Democrat.

This looks like a watershed year.