How Many Politicians Can Dance on a Razor's Edge?

News reports keep saying the Conservative Party of Canada campaign is in disarray and Harper’s chances of forming a new government are disappearing down the rabbit hole. And yet the poll numbers still show the three main federal parties neck and neck, as they have from the beginning of this long campaign.

If this is how Harper does in freefall, I’d like to see what happens if he catches a break.

It seems from this that Harper and the Tories have an absolute floor support of about 30%. But so far all the breaks have gone against the CPC; so we do not yet know really what their ceiling might be.

Of course, for them to stay competitive without their campaign catching fire, something else must happen. Thirty percent keeps you competitive in a three-way race. It will bury you in a two-way race. If they stay flat on their floor, they must count on the NDP and Liberals splitting the opposition vote, as they have so far, right down the middle.

For sheer sporting interest, you can't beat "first past the post."