Bombs Away

On the off-chance you missed it, something mighty peculiar just happened off the coast of California. About 35 miles out from Los Angeles, someone launched a large missile, nicely visible from the city. US Armed Forces claim to know nothing about it.

A test-firing of something secret? No; obviously, if this were so, they would not fire it right off LA, and right at rush hour, 5 pm. Not just the worst thing possible for secrecy: there is an intrinsic danger here to the civilian population. Missiles can misfire. Especially experimental ones.

A private launch? But that was a very big missile, and fired at sea. A bit much for a hobbyist. And why do it? For publicity? Then we should expect someone to have come forward by now to take responsibility.

It seems obvious that somebody was trying to send somebody a message.

If the US Armed Forces were trying to put on a display, though, would there really be any need to stay quiet and play dumb about it? And if the point were to make an impression to a foreign power, why off LA? Why not off the coast of some other relevant power, even if not a hostile one, just to demonstrate reach—since the US probably has the muscle to do it? For example, if the point was to unnerve North Korea, why not fire the missile, if not off Pyongyang, off Tokyo, or Manila? If the point was to unnerve Iran, why not fire it off Dubai, or Mumbai? Indeed, since everyone already assumes the US can launch missiles from sea wherever and whenever they wish, why bother with such a demonstration in the first place?

Which opens the possibility that it is in fact Israel, demonstrating reach to Iran. But that would be crazy overkill—it doesn't take the ability to fire across the world to show you can fire across the street.

But if, on the other hand, someone else intended to send the US a message, this would be the obvious thing to do, wouldn't it? It also makes sense, if so, that the US Armed Forces are saying nothing. Suppose it was North Korea or Iran, or maybe China? This sort of demonstration of an ability to hit LA with a nuke at will would not exactly delight the general population. Mass panic would be more like it.

Of course, the military could have pretended it was one of theirs, to prevent such panic. But not if it was unexpected—it would take some time to get something coordinated. In the meantime, they'd have to first say “don't know, but clearly not threatening.” Which is exactly what they are saying.

Looks like they're working on a coordinated story, though. Late coverage seems to be converging on the suggestion that it “might” be simply a jet contrail.

See for yourself. Me, I don't buy it. I've seen a lot of jet contrails, and I've never seen one before where you could also see the bright glow of an afterburner.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8GCgDKNEwyY

Now, logically, of the obvious possibilities, I'd put my money on North Korea. Iran would be closer to the East Coast, and they're less advanced in weaponry generally. China would probably not want to stir the pot, and probably does not need such a demonstration.