I Was Wrong

 

I got it wrong. I thought Justin Trudeau would call an election rather than step down; or at least, would not prorogue parliament, tacitly forcing his party to leave him in place to face the next election.

He did prorogue parliament, and he did announce he is stepping down. 

I think it is still significant that he called for a robust, nation-wide leadership contest. According to the Liberal Party constitution, a leadership contest must last at least ninety days, and must be called within 27 days of a leader stepping down. Prorogation lasts until March 24. That math says Trudeau will still be in place when the new Speech from the Throne is read, which Jagmeet Singh has publicly stated the NDP will vote against. And so it appears that Trudeau can still hope to be leader of the Liberals in the next election. If by some miracle he wins that election, all talk of his resignation will be forgotten.

I believe the party’s board of directors can amend and shorten that time frame with a 75% majority. But that’s a high bar. And there will surely be pressure not just from Trudeau, but from some possible contenders, not to do so. A shorter time frame favours the already better-known candidates.

In the meantime, there is talk of a court challenge to the prorogation itself. It looks constitutionally illegitimate to prorogue for such a long period, and transparently to prevent parliamentary accountability. Trudeau can hope for a court ruling forcing parliament back, if as I suspect he is hoping to hold the leadership into an election.

Trudeau may not be gone yet.