I Was Wrong

 

I got it wrong. I thought Justin Trudeau would call an election rather than step down; or at least, would not prorogue parliament, tacitly forcing his party to leave him in place to face the next election.

He did prorogue parliament, and he did announce he is stepping down. 

I think it is still significant that he called for a robust, nation-wide leadership contest. According to the Liberal Party constitution, a leadership contest must last at least ninety days, and must be called within 27 days of a leader stepping down. Prorogation lasts until March 24. That math says Trudeau will still be in place when the new Speech from the Throne is read, which Jagmeet Singh has publicly stated the NDP will vote against. And so it appears that Trudeau can still hope to be leader of the Liberals in the next election. If by some miracle he wins that election, all talk of his resignation will be forgotten.

I believe the party’s board of directors can amend and shorten that time frame with a 75% majority. But that’s a high bar. And there will surely be pressure not just from Trudeau, but from some possible contenders, not to do so. A shorter time frame favours the already better-known candidates.

In the meantime, there is talk of a court challenge to the prorogation itself. It looks constitutionally illegitimate to prorogue for such a long period, and transparently to prevent parliamentary accountability. Trudeau can hope for a court ruling forcing parliament back, if as I suspect he is hoping to hold the leadership into an election.

Trudeau may not be gone yet.

What Trudeau Is About to Do

 

Whatever I write now is likely to be obsolete before you read it. But let\s do this as a transparent test of my predictive abilities.

Rumours are everywhere that Justin Trudeau is going to resign as Liberal leader today or tomorrow.

He may have to, but it seems to me that doing this is to nobody’s benefit.

Trudeau obviously does not want to resign.

It is not good for the country, because it leaves us without leadership and for a protracted time, just as we are facing a grave external threat, with the Trump tariffs.

It is not good for the Liberal Party. Polls suggest they might do marginally better in an election under a new leader. But there is no saviour in the wings; in fact, no clear candidate who would be as good at campaigning as Trudeau; so it looks like a wash. Freeland has an annoyingly shrill voice and a habit of talking down to people. Carney is a grey bureaucrat. Nobody else has a public profile. 

Proroguing Parliament, either to hold a leadership contest or to delay an election under Trudeau, looks like a bad option. It again leaves Canada rudderless in a crisis, and the public will not be forgiving of that. It also looks desperate and undemocratic, a power grab, and the public will not be forgiving of that. And it means the government will soon run out of money—more chaos. And the public will not be forgiving of that. 

And from the point of view of any leadership candidate: it looks like suicide to run for the job now. They will have no time to introduce themselves to the public, will walk right into a massive electoral defeat, and will be tossed into the dumpster of history. Much better to let Trudeau take the loss, and rebuild starting next year. Or, if you are a prominent Liberal, skip this race and get ready to fight the inevitable next one in a year or two.

So since nobody benefits, why should Trudeau do this? It is also against his character: his entire mojo is self-confidence, and ignoring the blows. That was his strategy in boxing  Senator Brazeau, which won him the leadership; it is his signature move.

So I bet instead of resigning, he will call an election, and let the chips fall where they may. 

His caucus will resist. They know they will almost all lose their seats, and so would rather drag the mandate out for as long as possible. But they are being foolish, running around like a bunch of chickens in a rainstorm. “As long as possible” looks now like only a month or two, until Parliament passes a non-confidence motion. So why quibble? Best to get on with the rest of their lives.

So I predict Trudeau will not announce his resignation, but call an election. Or, if he feels he cannot brave the caucus, he will say he is resigning, but staying on as interim leader, and not proroguing parliament. Then he can expect that the government will fall before the new leader is selected, especially if the process is made lengthy, and he will still lead the party into the next election. That is better for the party, better for the country, and his one chance of staying on as prime minister. It actually worked for his father. Pierre Trudeau announced his resignation in 1979, then the PC government fell, and he agreed to lead his party into the next election. He won, and all talk of retirement was forgotten.

Now we’ll see how good I am at predictions.