Liberal Leadership Stakes

 

The Liberal leadership race is underway. 

Were I a Liberal, I would have thought Dominic Leblanc their best choice. He is likeable, projects calm in a tumultuous time, and a good communicator. But Leblanc has rightly and honourably taken himself out of the race because his cabinet responsibilities are too important, given the tariff threat from the US. Running now would look irresponsible. There is, in any case, likely to be another race in a year or two; he might as well keep his powder dry.

Leblanc pulling out in order to tend to his cabinet responsibilities has neatly taken any other current cabinet ministers out of the race. Otherwise his example makes them look bad.

The Liberals’ next best choice, to my mind, was (not is) Christie Clark. She too is likable, and an experienced campaigner. But I think she blew up her candidacy at the gate by lying about never joining the Conservative Party. In a campaign as short as this one, I don’t think she has time to recover. I wonder if she will now bother running. Again, there should be another shot in a year or so, after the collapse; and once people have had time to forget her lie.

This leaves Mark Carney as the next best choice the Liberal have available. Not a great choice. He has the advantage of not being associated in the popular mind with the perceived failings of the Trudeau government. He has the advantage of a financial background, and people are alarmed about the economy. But he has no political experience. His likability or campaign skills are unknown, but unlikely to be good; he has had no chance nor reason to develop such skills. And he must come across as an establishment candidate, an elite globalist, as a former central banker for two nations; at a time when the general mood is populist and highly suspicious of elites. 

I can’t imagine why it is worth his while to run. He would surely be wiser to let someone else take the loss, preserve his reputation, and run in a year or two. He was cautious enough not to take the role of finance minister last summer, when he was being talked about as a savior figure, and again when Chrystia Freeland resigned. I expect him to continue to show the same caution. I say he decides not to run.

Given the short time frame and the high bar for entry, I don’t see a chance for a dark horse; or even any candidate not seen as top tier from the start.

Leaving Chrystia Freeland. 

She will not do well in the next election. She is closely identified with Trudeau’s policies, and a too-familiar, stale  face of the past government. Her public persona is unlikeable, and her manner is irritating.

But she will get her claim to be the first female Liberal leader, and PM, if only for a few weeks.

Let’s see if I’m right.