The Inside Line on the US Presidential Election

Scott Adams has passed on an interesting theory: that since the advent of TV, the winner of the US Presidential election has always been the candidate who looks as though they could win in a fistfight or brawl. I had noticed before that the taller candidate usually wins. People perhaps instinctively look to the physically stronger candidate as the natural leader, as he would be in a wolf pack.

Trump-Clinton – Trump. This theory suggests that female leaders are at a permanent disadvantage.

Obama-Romney – Adams sees this as a tossup. But I think Obama would win on physical dexterity. He had and has a bit of a reputation as a basketball player. Romney moves stiffly.

Obama-McCain – Obama. McCain has to lose on the grounds of age and disability.

Kerry-Bush – I’m not sure it would have been Bush in a fair fight, but he gave the impression of being more physical. Kerry did not have an athletic build.

Gore-Bush – also hard to call. And so was the election. Gore looks bigger. Bush might have the edge since, at one of the debates, Gore tried to crowd him physically, and Bush did not budge. Making him look like the tougher candidate. Gore moved stiffly.

Clinton-Dole – Clinton, easily, on age alone, let alone Dole’s disability, and Clinton’s physical agility.

Clinton-Bush – Clinton, again on age alone.

Bush-Dukakis – Dukakis was short and looked silly in a tank. Bush.

Reagan-Mondale – Surely should have been Mondale, based on age. But Reagan played a tough guy in the movies; and he may still have projected strength, thanks to his acting ability.

Reagan-Carter – Carter was short; visually a pipsqueak. Reagan.

Carter-Ford – should have been Ford, by this metric. Ford was a college athlete. Carter was Carter. But the critical factor might have been that Ford moved clumsily. The general impression might have been that he was too stiff and had slow reflexes—Obama’s probable advantage over Romney. He would have been outboxed.

Nixon-McGovern – McGovern was lanky, an unathletic build. And had a voice similar to Liberace’s.

Nixon-Humphrey – Nixon. Humphrey was overweight.

Johnson-Goldwater – at first glance, should have been Goldwater. Johnson was a bit overweight. But he was physically huge, and did give an impression of physical strength and toughness.

Kennedy-Nixon – Kennedy wins on vim and vigor.

If the metric is good, Trump should win this time. He has a tough guy image, and Biden is looking frail.

Does the same metric work in Canadian elections?

It would explain Trudeau’s win in 2015: he had made a splash by winning a charity boxing match. I think it is a fair assumption he could take Harper or Mulcair in an alley.

In 2019, he probably could have taken Scheer. Singh seems less certain but Singh is third party. Bernier might have taken him, had the Conservatives chosen Bernier.

I think Harper could have taken Ignatieff easily—Ignatieff, like McGovern or Kerry, was long and lanky, not an athletic build. Harper might have had trouble with Layton, and perhaps that explains the Orange Wave.

Harper could have taken Dion, who was again an academic, not an athletic, type.

He could have taken Martin, who was a bit long in the tooth. But he lost the first time, won the second. It might have taken that long because of the tumult on the right wing in Canadian politics.

Stockwell Day should have taken Chretien. Chretien had a tough guy image, but age should have favoured Day. Again, the tumult on the right with parties rising and falling may have been an overriding factor.

And so on. Not a perfect metric, but a possibly significant one.

Based on it, who would be the better choice to lead the Conservatives?

I may be biased, but I’d say O’Toole. He is a bit overweight, but he looks strong and compact. His military background should help. MacKay has a bit of the lankiness that seems to have hurt other candidates.

Unfortunately, I’d expect Trudeau, with his demonstrated boxing skills, to take either of them; but it would be more of a contest with O’Toole.

Lewis presumably loses as a woman, although she looks strong for a woman. And Sloan does not look at all athletic. Is there such a thing as a Gamma male?