An Eleven-Card Hand That May Turn Out to Be Trump

Trump's proposed G-11

The “D-10” idea, which I have heard Indian media advocating as a British initiative, seems to have another supporter. Donald Trump just proposed the upcoming G7 summit be expanded to eleven: the ten democracies cited, Japan, Canada, the US, Britain, France, Germany, Italy, Australia, South Korea, and India, plus Russia. Almost the D-10 concept. 

Why add Russia? That may have to do with India. India looks like a critical partner here, breaking up the BRICS and naturally supplanting China as a manufacturing hub. But Russia and India have had a special relationship since the Cold War. Extending the invitation to Russia as well may make the alliance more attractive to India.

At the same time, India’s influence may make the deal more likely to appeal to Russia. Trump might well hope to coax Putin into the club. Perhaps improbable, but worth trying: that would be a diplomatic coup reminiscent of Nixon’s coaxing of China away from Russia back in the 1970s. It would more or less literally surround China and deprive it of its only militarily significant ally.

For all Putin’s adventurism, and all the false rumours about interference in the American elections, Russia is currently a declining power with about the economic heft of Italy, driven back into the ropes by the low price of oil. If they want to continue to swagger, they cannot afford to make a wrong move. Do they really want to band with China while the rest of the world is turning against them?

And Putin, the old KGB man, is just the guy to pull such an ace out of his sleeve. Eurasia was always at war with Eastasia. There is an obvious possible payoff for Russia, should an actual shooting war come, or should the Chinese government implode. They could then, without interference from the other powers, now their allies, and basically constituting everyone else who might otherwise object, sponsor an independent Manchuria. Giving them in return guaranteed access to that eternal grail of Russian foreign policy, an ice-free winter port. There is no plausible comparable territorial upside to an alliance with China against the rest of the group, even if Russia plus China could stand against them. And a Russia that merely stood aloof might be uncomfortably irrelevant. No swagger in that.

No harm, then, in extending this olive branch. Trump knows a possible deal when he sees one.

There is just a chance that, by doing so, he could end this new Cold War with China before it starts.

China, surrounded and without allies, would not dare to start a shooting war. And it would be unable to compete economically against an alliance fully self-sufficient in terms of resources, as India replaced it as a centre of high-tech manufacturing.