Go East, Young Man

When this virus outbreak began—you remember we are in the middle of a pandemic, right?—I proposed that it was a kind of stress test among nations. Perhaps sent by God to do just this. It would show which societies are most vital.

Whether fully consciously or not, others seem to be making the same assumption. South Korea and Taiwan, for example, seem to have gained immensely in international prestige due to their ability to manage the crisis so well. This may be part of what is behind this drive to go from G7 to D10.

We are probably far enough into the outbreak now to declare some winners and losers. The chart shows the death rates per capita by seven-day average for a selection of countries: the developed “G7,” plus other countries in Central/Eastern Europe and East Asia.

Tropical and antipodean principalities have been excluded because I assume the virus is sensitive to heat and light. China is excluded because their figures are probably not reliable. Russia is excluded because it seems to be still in the midst of it, and the ultimate outcome is not yet clear.

Most striking, to me, is how similar the trajectories are within the different cultural groups—with the interesting exception of Germany. This suggests that culture matters more than the particular government and the measures it took.

My conclusion is that, based on this stress test, civilizational vitality is currently greatest in East Asia, with Central and Eastern Europe next. This is where we can expect the future to emerge.

Now here's a thought: given that Canada could use a larger population, it might be wisest for the future of all Canadians to prefer immigrants from these most vital cultural regions. they may bring with them this cultural vitality, and infuse us with it. At the same time, in doing so, we are less likely to drain the parent society of its vitality.

Which would mean, for example, open doors to refugees from the current Chinese crackdown on Hong Kong.