May Day! May Day!

The goat

Everybody is blaming Theresa May for the bollix of Brexit. Not fair.

It is indeed a mess. Parliament has voted not to leave without a deal, and has rejected the only deal on offer. They have already voted to leave, and will automatically in seven days. The speaker has ruled that no new vote on the deal can be held. It looks like an insane situation in which all possible options are off the table.

But it seems to me it is not May’s mess. She is being scapegoated. Besides the injustice, this is a needless distraction from the matter at hand.

The logic of the situation seems inevitable. It was never under May’s control. It takes two to tango, and what she can get is simply what the EU will offer. It is intrinsically not in the EU’s interest to offer a deal better than crashing out.

Why would it be? When has a federation ever offered anyone perks for leaving? Did the USA do any special favours for the Confederates when the Southern states wanted to leave that union? Did they get a gold watch? Did the UK give either the US or Ireland an easy and a favourable separation?

Frankileon, Flickr.

Had the EU remained as it started, a trade deal, strictly business, it might be different. But now too much is at stake. The EU ideal is at stake; the ever closer union.

The only bargaining chip the UK has or ever held was the alternative of going with no deal. It seems to follow that that’s the best deal they can ever get.

Once they’re out, things should be different. Then, perhaps after a decent interval, it becomes in the EU’s interest to seek accommodation again.

Cashing Out and Crashing Out

On Brexit, I don’t think Theresa May bears any blame. Underneath the posturing, there is a simple reality. The EU does not want to make it easy for any member to leave; what higher government ever does? How sanguine was the US when the Confederate States wanted to leave? The UK, when America did? Not only does it involve an immediate reduction of power for the folks negotiating the exit on the European side, but an easy exit will encourage others to leave. No federation can survive if it makes it easy.

By this logic, it is probably inevitable that any deal on offer from the EU is going to be worse for Britain than simply “crashing out.” They have no incentive to make it easier.

And so crashing out seems to be the best option.

Once the UK is out, it makes more sense for the EU to play nice. The deed is done, the bluff failed. Now the economics make it in the EU’s interest to conclude a trade deal. If they do not find some accommodations in good time, there will especially be troubles for Ireland. In the meantime, Britain can be making trade deals with the US, the rest of the Anglosphere, India. She is a big economy. She is a desirable date. There will be other suitors.

Brexit

Along with Boris Johnson and Nigel Farage, they two most interesting politicians in Britain, I back Brexit.

I think Johnson is right that a British exit would not be all that disruptive, but would probably end with a free trade deal that omitted all the political ties which interfere with British sovereignty. Free trade with Britain is just in everyone's interest in the rest of Europe.

Furthermore, I think the British people will in fact vote to leave. Currently, polls show them almost evenly split, with perhaps a slight preference for the no side—i.e., for staying in. However, the referendum looks to me like the same sort of opportunity to thumb ones nose at the ruling elite as is manifested in the US in the candidacies of Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders. Not to mention the Tea Party a few years ago. This is a world-wide tendency; it is of a piece, if far more muted due to circumstances, as the Arab Spring, It is driven by technology: Web 2.0, social media, the growing lack of any need for control from above by a ruling elite.

I have long hoped the UK would leave the EU and instead join NAFTA. We are brothers over here; he fit would just be a lot more natural. A union of the Anglosphere also makes sense in terms of preserving our geopolitical interests. One hopes Ireland, Australia, and New Zealand would also soon come on board.

I hope the US and Canada are working behind the scenes to set this all in motion should the referendum go against Europe.

Angus Reid Poll Suggests Plurality of Britons for Leaving EU

http://www.angus-reid.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/08/2012.08.14_EU_BRI.pdf

Sounds as though, if Cameron is serious about holding a referendum, it might really result in the UK leaving Europe.

Not that I think it would be a good idea in the modern world for Britain to try to go it alone. Just that I think they're in the wrong trading block. I'd rather see a combined NAFTA-Commonwealth Bloc, with a few other members (Ireland, The Philippines...)--roughly, the "Anglosphere." The combination is far more natural, in terms of shared political, legal, and economic traditions. It would be much bigger and more powerful. And I think it makes more economic sense--a more diverse bloc has more to trade profitably.

On Britain Leaving the EU

A new report.

Telegraph Writer Says What I've Been Saying for Years

Might the sun yet rise, and never set again, on the Anglophone Empire?

...Britain would have a great future economically and politically  allied with the Anglosphere instead of the EU.

The Special Relationship with Washington would only be strengthened, not weakened, as America looks beyond the emperor with no clothes in Brussels to a resurgent Britain freed of the shackles of the EU’s Common Foreign and Security Policy and Common Security and Defence Policy. And it would only be a matter of time before a free trade agreement was negotiated and signed between the US and UK, reinforcing the biggest bilateral investment relationship in the world. It would also be a major opportunity for Britain to reinvigorate ties with the Anglosphere nations of Canada, Australia, New Zealand and India, as well as important English-speaking trading partners in Asia such as Singapore and Hong Kong. 

Link. 

Canada's Coming Role as the Centre of the Universe

With all the other news going on, nobody seems to notice it, but it looks as though Stephen Harper is negotiating a free trade deal with the EU.

It makes tremendous sense. For Europe, the attractions to free trade with Canada are great. Canada has a lot of oil. Europe lacks a secure supply. This is not to mention Canada's other rich natural resources. And both Britain and France feel historic ties.

If it happens, Canada in turn would have a unique competitive advantage, as the only nation trading freely into both the European and North American markets. It would make great sense for companies from both zones to relocate production to Canada as a result. It also provides Canada with its historically-needed counterbalance to US dominance, filling the gap left by the dissolution of the British Empire. More than most countries, Canada lives by external trade. If we can boost trade with Europe, it will cushion us somewhat from our over-dependence on one market, that of the US.

Of course, it also helps Canadian consumers; and we are all consumers.

It is an exciting prospect, and one, I think, whose time has come.