Never Again Boots on the Ground

 

$54 at Amazon

The war in Ukraine is changing history in ways we may not immediately see.

At the end of the 19th century, the invention of the machine gun revolutionized war by giving massive advantage to the defense. The result was the stasis of the trenches in WWI. The carnage was too great; war became unthinkable.

Except... the British invented the tank. Tanks trumped machine guns; the advantage shifted over again to offense.

Now drones have made tanks obsolete. They have made any large war machines obsolete. Drones can cover the battlefield and target precisely anything that moves. 

It is not that the war in Ukraine has devolved to trench warfare. Instead, I hear that the front lines are nearly deserted. A trench cannot protect from drones.

I cannot think of the technological innovation that could, in principle, trump drones. Radio jamming? But just like self-driving cars, AI can increasingly allow drones to find targets on their own.

This gives an overwhelming advantage to the defense, and equalizes opposing sides. Drones are cheap; far cheaper than tanks or aircraft carriers. And if nobody, man or machine, can raise their heads above ground, ground cannot be taken.

And the issue should become the same at sea: underwater drones.

The lesson Russia is learning should for the foreseeable future, deter any major acts of military aggression. If Taiwan is wise, they are developing a drone force now, aerial and submarine. It would be fairly easy and inexpensive to make an invasion from the mainland virtually impossible.

Giving the defense the advantage should preserve the status quo, so benefitting those on top in the status quo—good news for America. On the other hand, the US should with all deliberate speed shift their defense spending from building heavy armaments like aircraft carriers and tanks to drone fleets. The era of American “boots on the ground” is over. It was never a good tactic for a sea power like the US.

Trump’s diplomatic strategy seems just right for this new era: non-intervention, using economic power, and if necessary, unannounced strikes from the air.