Where did everybody go? |
The world is changing.
Now something seems to be happening in China. There are now enough rumours to convince me that Xi is on his way out.
I thought the Xi style of government was a desperation move by the CCP in the first place. My Chinese friends had asserted long ago that the CCP no longer had any philosophical or ideological capital with the people. The general public was simply ready to ride along so long as everyone was getting richer. Why rock the boat?
But by 2012, it was probably clear to Chinese leadership that economic turmoil was coming. China was facing demographic collapse. Even without it, they were reaching the limit of what economic progress could be achieved by cheap labour: the supply of such labour was running out. It was also only too likely that much of China’s progress and economic strength was always a matter of faked figures and Ponzi schemes. Any system that relies on central planning and not market forces will breed faked production figures and official corruption. There is immediate incentive to do it, and no effective checks against it.
So, fearing what happened in the Soviet Union, the CCP took the opposite course: cracking down instead of opening up. Going back to Maoist tactics. Appealing to fear and ideology. That was Xi’s mandate. He was the guy prepared to try it.
It was bound to fail; now it has. Because it cannot solve the economic problem or the demographic problem, things have gotten worse for the population, and there are growing protests. At some point, the regime must fear the army revolting and refusing orders.
This to me explains Xi’s sabre rattling. Otherwise, it is crazy to systematically alienate all your neighbours as Xi has. And, if you believe you are a rising power, it makes more sense to lie low and look unthreatening while your power grows. The only explanation for China’s growing bellicosity that makes sense is that Xi was eager to keep the people focussed on a foreign enemy to deflect anger from the central government. And, at the same time, to keep the military on the borders, instead of near Beijing, to reduce the risk of a coup.
But the upshot is that China is increasingly isolated internationally. And this has led the rest of the world, especially Trump’s America, to play rougher on trade, intensifying the regime’s economic problems.
So now it seems the faction led by former leader Hu Jintao has regained ascendency, and are demanding a return to the prior policy of opening up.
This too is risky; risker now than in 2012, when the Politburo decided it was too risky. We may see a sudden collapse like that of the USSR.
But at this point, China is running out of options.