How Canada Falls

 

I think Trump is serious about annexing Canada. He’s been harping at it, recently referring to Trudeau as “governor of the great state of Canada.” 

Trump is moving the Overton window, He’s forcing the discussion. He’s done this before. Eventually, it becomes the standard wisdom. Remember when building the border wall was a crazy idea? And it was racist to object to illegals? 

The annexation makes every kind of sense from the American perspective. It is ultimately the only way to secure the northern border. 

Trudeau, predictably, is reacting in the worst way possible, from Canada’s point of view. He always wants a fight; this is how he reacts when challenged. And he does not care what damage he does to Canada; as noted in a recent column, as a narcissist, he probably wants to burn the place down because it is no longer inclined to vote for him.  

Trudeau is idiotically threatening to raise tariffs on American products coming into Canada as retaliation; rather than trying to reach accommodation.

In any trade war, Canada is bound to lose. Canada’s economy depends far more on trade with the US than the American economy depends on trade with Canada. The trade war will probably crash the Canadian economy, and soon have Canadians begging to join the US.

As it stands, an online poll has Canadians evenly split on whether they’d rather stay independent or join the US.

Trudeau’s intransigence may be part of Trump’s calculations. He might have expected this reaction. As a skilled negotiator, he probably studies his opponents’ weaknesses. He seems to be deliberately provoking Trudeau to do something stupid. 

I can see it happening. This or that individual province votes to join the US. The US then piles forces in, forestalling any action by the federal government. If any province but Nova Scotia, PEI, BC  or Newfoundland make this move, they cut Canada in half, making it unviable. 

I’d put my money on Alberta going first.

Poilievre might yet right the ship; but I think it is going to happen.