2024 Predictions

I think RFK Jr. is an exceptionally attractive candidate. The Earth is moving beneath us. 

The Democratic Party establishment is determined to go with Biden and Harris, who are notably unpopular. Voters have growing reason to believe Biden is not in control of his faculties. The are both low in the polls. But the hubris of the Democratic establishment knows no bounds.

RFK is likely to win the first primary, in New Hampshire. Against a sitting president. In most years, that would clinch it. 

I expect the Democratic Party establishment is likely instead to blatantly rig the nomination process to keep him out. They will prevent other candidates from jumping in, the same way they managed to get everyone to jump out in 2020. They think they can get away with it, because they have previously gotten away ith it, against Bernie Sanders and the far left.

But I think they will run out of luck. I see RFK putting together a run as an independent; and I think a lot of other Democrats will join him. Imagine a ticket of RFK Jr. and Tulsi Gabbard; almost a dream ticket in terms of charisma. Imagine Kristen Sinema and Joe Manchin flocking to these new colours. Imagine vocal support from dissatisfied leftists like Jimmy Dore and Joe Rogan in the media. They could pull a lot of votes, I suspect, if well-funded. Not enough to win, but enough to be a big factor, and establish a new party that might survive and supplant the current Democrats over time.

They could run on a peace platform, against big pharma and big business, for environmentalism, and against the extremities of the trans movement and the culture war. As the religious left, and as a reset of the Democrats to what they stood for in the late Sixties; “Kennedy Democrats.”

On the Republican side such a split has already happened, in 2016, and the insurgents won. That was when Trump took control of the party for the populists against the establishment.

Mike Pence is now the standard-bearer of the old guard. But I can’t see him overtaking Trump in the polls, and I can’t see them splitting off, as they did in 2016 under McMullin. That would look too much like a dead end. They will suck it up and back Trump. Conceivably, a few might move to RFK; but I can’t see even a Mitt Romney feeling more comfortable there. Because he is purely establishment, and RFK is anti-establishment. 

How about Trump’s VP pick? Unless something changes dramatically, as it certainly can, everybody else looks as though they are running for vice-president. Nobody but DeSantis is within range of Trump.

 Many are hoping for a Trump-DeSantis ticket. I think it is possible, even if they are going at it hammer and tongs for now. It would not work with DeSantis at the top of the ticket; that would seem too much of a comedown for a former president. But if Trump comes out on top, he holds no grudges. DeSantis might, in ordinary circumstances, be too big a beast to be content with second-best, but since Trump is limited to a single term, he might go for it.

Chris Christie is reputedly about to enter the race. He surely has no reasonable chance at the top of the ticket. My guess is he is consciously running for the vice-presidency. He is hoping to raise his profile. Having more people in the race actually helps Trump; he might even be a plant. Christie is a good attack dog; he took down Marco Rubio in 2016. Presidents generally like Vice Presidents who are attack dogs. Trump certainly does. He wanted Newt Gingrich on the ticket in 2016, for this reason. He had to take Pence thanks to pressure from party stalwarts. This time, he will not have that pressure. Newt is a little long in the tooth; but Christie might fit the bill. He could prove himself in the primaries.

Also auditioning for the vp slot, and highly suitable: Tim Scott, Larry Elder, and Nikki Haley. They are hoping, no doubt, to become diversity hires.

The cards look good for a Trump win.