The State of the Race

Okay, now Mike Huckabee is in. Should be formidable. He has the strongest claim on the evangelical right, with growth potential because of his geniality and charisma. Kills Santorum’s chances, though.

Strongest candidates based on my idea that you need a faction behind you:

Jeb Bush has the establishment/party pros behind him.

Rand Paul has the libertarians.

Ted Cruz has the best claim on the Tea Party populists.

Mike Huckabee should pull the religious right.

There is room for one or two more establishment candidates, in case Jeb stumbles: Chris Christie, Mitt Romney if he decides to come in. Romney would have a real shot at it, running to the right of Bush. Paul Ryan or Scott Walker could probably mount a credible challenge in Iowa, and hope to snowball from there.

Carly Fiorina looks like she is going to come in on the strength of being a female, and Ben Carson on the strength of being black. People will bankroll them just to keep this diversity in the race, and there is always the possibility of lightning striking.

Can't see an opening for Rick Perry, Marco Rubio, or Bobby Jindal. Cruz takes Perry's oxygen, Bush and Cruz take Rubio's. Jindal has no natural constituency.

Edge to Jeb Bush, because the Republican establishment almost always gets its way, but there's many a slip.

None of it matters much. Some people follow baseball. I follow US politics.

Perhaps the more interesting race is on the Democratic side. In their hearts, I believe Democrats do not want to vote for Hillary Clinton. It would be just too boring. On the other hand, no plausible and motivating alternative has emerged yet.

Elizabeth Warren? She looks and sounds too much like Hillary to galvanize, even if her politics are different.

My best guess so far is Al Franken. He has some gimmick appeal: he would be the first Jewish president, after all.