US Presidential Politics at the Moment

Current state of the GOP presidential race: each of the important factions of the Republican party seem to have settled on their favourite, but one. The Christian right wants Huckabee. The Tea Party, the populist wing, wants Ted Cruz. The libertarians want Rand Paul. This makes each of these three viable candidates, because each of these groups comes with volunteers and a ready-made campaign organization on the ground.

The “establishment,” the political pragmatists, however, have not settled on their candidate. They liked Chris Christie early on, but, as I predicted, there were skeletons. And, as I predicted, they are now looking closely at Jeb Bush as a substitute. If Bush in turn stumbles, Paul Ryan will be their guy.

So those three also have viable campaign prospects. The “establishment” support is generally twice as big as any other faction, so it can sustain two or more candidates for a time. Moreover, it is much more fickle than any other faction, due to its pragmatism, so it is worth it for possible mainstream candidates to hang in and hope for a frontrunner to stumble.

If I were placing bets, given the field as I see it today, I'd put my money on Jeb Bush as the most likely nominee. Rand Paul will probably surprise early, perhaps knocking Christie out of the race. The libertarians probably have the best organization on the ground. But foreign policy is an Achilles' Heel for them; I doubt they can get over the top.

This may well come just in time for North Carolina's, or Florida's, primary. Here Jeb Bush has a big advantage as a son of the South and as a Floridian. Bush's record is conservative enough that he should not fatally alienate the ideologues, at least not enough that they would comfortbly combine against him. He has the sense of gravitas needed to follow Obama's amateurish administration; people are likely to be hankering for that. Indeed, for maximum gravitas, imagine a ticket with Jeb Bush for President, Mitt Romney for VP. I think this would appeal to a lot of people who feel bad about not voting for Romney last time.

On the Democratic side, I still sense that Hillary Clinton's support is only inches deep. They want someone young and exciting to show up and make it a race; they just haven't found anyone yet. They will. Rahm Emanuel is one guy who might offer the desired excitement; he might inherit the Obama machine. He just needs an issue to latch onto.