New Year's Predictions

First, how did I do last year?

So-so. I think the future is, broadly, possible to predict. You can see where a trend is going. But not the timings. That's the tricky part.

1. Global warming is dead – Yep. This has become apparent over the past year.

2. The Chinese government will fall – Nope. I keep predicting it, and it keeps not happening. I predict it again for this year.

3. Also North Korea – Nope, but something is happening up there. Looks as lot shakier today than it did one year ago.

4. Iranian government will not fall unless Chinese and North Korean governments do. Yup.

5. More recession. Technically, the recession has been over for quite some time, but that's not what I meant. In real terms, yup.

6. Islamism in decline. Nope; looks as healthy as ever, based on number of incidents.

7. A new story: the decline of the traditional university. Yup. I've seen multiple stories along this line over the past year.

8. The general move to homeschooling will accelerate-- yup

9. The traditional print newspaper will continue to decline rapidly, with print versions of magazines starting to disappear as quickly as newspapers – yup. Newsweek was sold this year for one dollar.

10. Ebooks are starting to boom – yup. Apple and Google have both jumped into that market with both feet.

11. pulp and paper industry in decline – don't know. Can't find good figures on the web.

12. book publishing doing well- ibid.

13. Invest in Apple – would have been a good idea. The iPad has done very well.

14. Google also still looks strong. Check.

15. So does Amazon. Check.

16. The desktop computer is starting to look quaint. Check

17. Speaking of PDAs: big term for the new year will be “augmented reality.” This is going to be bigger than the Internet is now. Not this year.

18. There will be no big revival of the real estate market. Check. Still headed down in the US.

19. The West will continue to grow more conservative in outlook. Check. Conservative win in Britain; Republican win in midterms; the Tea Party; Rob Ford win in Toronto.

20. Like everyone else, I expect the Tories to win the next election in Britain. Check

21. and the Republicans to take the midterms in the US. Check

22. Nobody else seems to see this on the horizon, but another bubble that I think is ripe to burst is medicine. No sign of this yet, except that other writers have started predicting the same thing.

So: I was right on 16, wrong on 5, results unclear on 2. Not all that bad. Except that it ought to count if I also missed big stories—otherwise it is too easy to do well by picking really safe predictions. I missed the Euro default crisis.

How about next year?

Not having learned my lesson, I predict that at least one government on the following list will fall, perhaps two: China, North Korea, Iran, Cuba. Timing such things is tricky, but as the recession drags on, the thing becomes more likely. I add Cuba to this list for the first time this year. I'm calculating that, if Fidel Castro dies this year, it might trigger something. Same math applies to KJI in North Korea.

I still look for a “China bubble” to pop.

Teachers and teachers' unions are going to get mauled this year. Chric Christie has shown the way, and a lot of politicians are probably going to jump on this bandwagon. It's too popular. And they deserve it.

The world economy will remain bad. The financial problems of many US state governments will become more dramatic. Since the economy is not otherwise improving, I'd give better than 50-50 odds that Greece and Ireland will be followed in default by Portugal and/or Spain.

No election in Canada.

The higher education bubble, now commonly talked about, gets bigger as a story. I don't see bunches of big universities closing their doors yet, but online ed is going to grow by further leaps and bounds.