Dark Horse Trot

Vote for me.

Last Republican primary season, in 2007-2008, it was apparent early that there was a big hole for a conservative to run through. Too many early leading candidates were moderates. Giuliani and McCain almost cancelled each other out; Romney was a moderate by record.

The right-wing run didn't quite happen. I still think it could have, had Fred Thompson shown a bit more interest. But the slipstream propelled him into the race when he had no intention originally to run—the polling numbers just looked too good. The vacuum on the right also catapulted dark horse Huckabee into the top tier, and convinced Romney to run, unconvincingly, to the right.

In the end, McCain pulled it out, but it was a very close-run thing.

This time, interestingly, it looks as though the field is similarly skewed the opposite way. Primary seasons are like wars—armies of operatives are always perfectly prepared to fight the last one. Palin, Huckabee, Gingrich, Romney, the four big names most likely to start, are all running right. Nobody's talking to or about moderates, in this Tea Party atmosphere. That's exactly why, with these four big pulls fairly evenly splitting the rightward vote, a qualified moderate with name recognition—or even a dark horse with the time to work Iowa--would have a fine chance to get a good head wind in the early primaries.

In particular, if they both run, Palin and Huckabee are likely to cancel each other out just like McCain and Giuliani did in early going. They have a very similar appeal. Palin looks like she could pull away, but rumours are that a lot of party leaders are particularly unhappy about her. They might throw a lot of weight behind Huckabee to stop her.

Besides the fact that four strong candidates are all competing for the right-wing vote, all of them have some serious flaw that makes it difficult for them to get the entire right to unite behind them. Had Romney not pulled right last time, this could have been his year. But not now: he already looks like a careerist. He cannot flip now that he's flopped. Especially not with the Tea Party watching closely. At the same time, the real rightists are not going to settle for Romney when they have real right-wingers to choose from. Gingrich washes out with social conservatives because of his spotted personal life. But both Huckabee and Palin raise questions of underqualification and lack of gravitas.

Of the big four, I'd put my money on Huckabee for having the best shot. But it's high-risk. He stands a chance of being eliminated early by Palin before he gets to exploit his second-choice potential.

Against all this, a moderate could have a pretty clear run for a few primaries, while the right is beating up on itself. Remember too that whenever a moderate candidate emerges in the Republican races, the mainstream media lionize them, doing their best to get them some traction. So it was with John McCain in 2000; so it was with John Anderson in 1980; so it was with Giuliani in 2008.

A moderate would also, more or less by definition, have crossover appeal. This could matter more than usual this time out. If levels of dissatisfaction with Obama remain high, yet Obama as an incumbent president faces no primary challenge in the Democratic party, a lot of independents and Democrats—not necessarily even disaffected Democrats--will be tempted to vote in the Republican primaries, whenever crossover voting is allowed.

Giuliani? Colin Powell? Joseph Liebermann switching parties? Any of these might be able to pull it off. Any would also contrast well with Obama in terms of gravitas and experience. Giuliani and Powell do not seem to want it that much; they've more or less moved on from politics altogether. And it's a bit late for Liebermann to turn Republican in time to contend; not that there is any sign he'd do it. There are other names: Chris Christie or Mitch Daniels might credibly run as relative moderates.

Michael Bloomberg seems to be gearing up for an independent run. He could have had a far better shot of actually becoming president if he had stayed in the Republican party in 2008. His chance opens up if and only if the Republicans end up with a candidate well to the right. And even then, a third party has taken the Presidency more or less exactly never, since the days of Abraham Lincoln. All he is likely to do is to split the non-Tea Party vote enough to help the eventual Republican nominee get in, even if he or she is well to the right.

Okay, here's my prediction: look for an early surprise in the Republican primary season, an unexpectedly strong showing from a relative moderate who is still a dark horse, still not being talked about as a contender. Whoever it is will either win or place at the convention.