Why Romney Cannot Win Iowa--Or the Nomination

Many feel that Rudy Giuliani’s camp cannot win, in the current race for the US Republican nomination, because Mitt Romney is topping the polls in both Iowa and New Hampshire. The thinking is that carrying these first two states will give Romney crucial momentum, with the big states voting soon afterwards. Giuliani may not be able to recover before it’s all over.

The first thing that makes this assumption false is the sudden rise of Mike Huckabee in the polls. If Huckabee effectively ties Romney in Iowa—he is shown now in a statistical tie—the Romney momentum is gone. Even better for Giuliani, no clear alternative to the ex-mayor will have emerged. And, better still, Huckabee competes directly with Romney for the more conservative vote, leaving the moderate wing clear for Giuliani.

But more—Romney faces the crippling problem of being expected now to win in both Iowa and New Hampshire. And the media does not necessarily seize upon the winner in those contests. They seize on the best story—the candidate who most defies expectations. And this is a very difficult horse to ride. If you are anticipated to be the winner, you more or less have nowhere to go but down: you can either meet expectations, in which case there is no story; or you can fall below them, in which case your candidacy is badly wounded. Either way, there is no momentum coming out of Iowa, or New Hampshire, for Romney.

In 2000, George Bush won the Iowa caucuses. But the big story was Steve Forbes’s strong second-place finish. In 1996, Dole won. But the story was Pat Buchanan’s strong second-place finish. In 1988, Dole won—but was expected to win. He lost the nomination to George Bush Senior. George Bush Senior won in 1980. He lost the nomination to Ronald Reagan. Only two winners of the Iowa caucuses have ever gone on to win the presidency.

The record for New Hampshire winners is somewhat better. But the same phenomenon occurs. In 1968, President Johnson won the New Hampshire primary—but the big news was Eugene McCarthy’s strong second-place finish, and it killed Johnson’s chances.

Of course, if Romney loses Iowa, and then wins New Hamphire, he might get some momentum for the “comeback.” But probably not. As ex-governor of the state next door, he is again assumed to have a natural advantage. Winning would mean nothing, any more than it did for Paul Tsongas in 1992, or Henry Cabot Lodge in 1964. Only losing would be newsworthy.

Huckabee, as a dark horse, can indeed get a bounce out of Iowa. But can Huckabee, even if all the cards fall in his favour, get the nomination? When was the last time the Republicans ever nominated a horse this dark? Warren G. Harding?

Rudy Giuliani is still the one to beat.