Proud Tories

Recent polls seem to have been accurate—for example, the polls for the Iowa and New Hampshire primaries. This after some years during which political polls seemed to get less and less reliable.

Have the polling firms found a way to improve their methods? Maybe; but I have not heard of any such innovation. It is also curious that, in the past, the polls were always wrong in the same direction, underrepresenting the right. And it is curious that all the polling firms seem to have found their groove again at the same time. This argues against some clever innovation; any pollster who had worked something out would want to keep it to themselves.

One theory was that the polling firms were previously in the tank for the left. Maybe they have shifted their political views. But I doubt this; political polling is rarely their main business, only an advertisement for their wares, and it is not in their interest to establish a reputation for unreliable polling.

Instead, I think this may be more evidence that the social tide is turning against the left. I think we are seeing the end of what, in the UK, was called “shy Tory syndrome.” People are no longer intimidated by the woke mob.

In the past, according to this theory, people were reluctant to say to a stranger on the phone that they intended to vote right. People want to say what they think will make the listener happy and think well of them. And they assumed the average stranger would be offended if they admitted they liked Trump, disliked Brussels, or supported the Thatcherites. One knew one was not supposed to express such views in polite company.

Now perhaps the moral high ground has shifted. People are no longer assuming this. The seal of censorship has been broken.

Call Me, Maybe?

An interesting and perhaps overlooked aspect to the recent provincial elections in Quebec, New Brunswick, and Ontario, is that in all three, the party on the right significantly overperformed their polling numbers.

So, of course, did Donald Trump in the last US presidential election.

It looks as though “Shy Tory Syndrome” is real: people who intend to vote for the right-wing candidate are less inclined to tell pollsters how they will vote. Or else the polling model being used is flawed. Polling has become much trickier over the past few years, because of cell phones and people being less inclined to answer a call from an unknown number.