The Harris Bump

 

The latest theme among commentators is how Kamala Harris is now winning the US Presidential election. Right-wing commentators are alarmed, and are saying the Trump campaign is on the back foot.

I think this is largely driven by the need to have something new to talk about. And this is just the inevitable bump of excitement any candidate gets when they are nominated. 

I expect the next story to be how the Harris campaign is crashing and burning. That should hit by election day.

People are not focused on Harris and Walz yet. There is so much material there for opp research and memes. And the Trump campaign has lots of money to put it out.

Trump is relatively restrained so far at attacking Harris. His tack is just that she is too radically left-wing. I think he is right. Because she is a woman and of darker skin tone, the minute he says anything mocking, as he does so well, he will be declared a racist, a sexist, and a bully. It is best to hold back and let her destroy herself. And let the independent commentators and meme makers do the rest.

I think she will manage to do it.

Shanahan In

 

I knew nothing about her until her name came up as a possible RFK VP pick, but I think Nicole Shanahan was a good choice for that ticket. That she has no political experience, in the current climate, is a plus. RFK is running to change things. She can at least pose as a “tech entrepreneur,” and that’s a background demonstrated to be marketable by such figures as Andrew Yang and Vivek Ramaswamy. Tech entrepreneurs are modern culture heroes. Her youth contrasts well with old Joe Biden and old Donald Trump. She is a glamorous figure, which plays into the Kennedy brand: “return to Camelot.”

The immediate criticism from the right is that she is too left-wing. I don’t think most voters think in those terms. They simply either want change or the status quo. She introduces an issue which is neither obviously left nor right, but could appeal across the spectrum: chronic disease and what is causing it. This dovetails with Kennedy’s concern over vaccines and the environment to make what looks like a coherent ticket and platform. Which speaks of sincerity, an important part of RFK Jr.’s appeal. And it serves to shift the political discourse, which is the whole point of a third-party effort.

Something else occurs to me: she looks like a replacement for Tulsi Gabbard. She ticks a number of the same boxes. As if Kennedy had his mind set on Gabbard, had his strategies worked out assuming she was his running mate, and then could not get her; so he went for a reasonable facsimile. There were indeed early rumours that Gabbard would be his pick; at one point he went to Honolulu, in her home state, to make some rumoured announcement that did not happen. I thought Kennedy-Gabbard would be a dream ticket.

Perhaps a planned announcement was called off because Gabbard got a better offer. Perhaps Trump, seeing this about to happen, picked up the phone and told Gabbard to hold off, and she would be his own VP pick. There are recent rumours that Ramaswamy is out of contention, and Gabbard has recently publicly said she would be honoured. This is not something a politician usually says if they do not expect to be selected—it makes them look needy and embarrasses them when they are not chose.

Gabbard makes excellent sense for Trump as well. If Trump does not pick a woman, when both Biden and Kennedy have, that could hurt his image with women, a huge voting block. Especially in the face of prior claims by his Democrat opponents that Trump is anti-woman. As a Samoan and a Hindu, she also blunts charges of racism or “Christian nationalism” against Trump. But as a woman of faith, she is probably also viewed favourably by his Christian supporters. As an independent and former Democrat, she could broaden appeal to independent voters and disaffected Democrats. She is, like Trump, an anti-establishment figure; this would send a reassuring message to his supporters that he is not going to be controlled by the existing party bosses. Because Trump’s appeal is always that he will stand up to the “uniparty” and the beltway mafia.

The Obligatory Post about the Iowa Caucuses

 

Trump won the Iowa caucuses. It wasn’t close, and it all came out pretty much as the polls predicted. There was no race on the Democratic side. 

Pity the poor media, who have to make it sound exciting; for them, no news is bad news.

And now, already, both the Republican and the Democratic nomination races seem to be over. That leaves a big hole in the prospective news year. 

I am troubled by the bad blood evident among the Republicans: how everyone is sliming Nikki Haley, how Ron DeSantis is crying foul because the media called the race too soon. It’s dumb, now that the nomination is pretty much decided and nothing much is at stake. It starts to look like a circular firing squad. Nikki Haley is not a real threat to the MAGAnauts, she was a good governor; and DeSantis would never have won if the media had held off. Moreover, his platform and Trump’s are barely distinguishable.

I lament the lack of civility and decorum; it is one of the great problems with America today. It is profoundly unhealthy when politics becomes such a consuming passion.

And no, Trump is not to blame for this; populism is not to blame for this. Trump and populism are a reaction to this failure of civil discourse, not its cause.

Two Trains in the Night

 

Maybe more accurate with a donkey

My predictions for 2024 have been intentionally optimistic. Now 2024 has actually begun with a major earthquake, in Japan. Not a good sign.

It is hard to see how the 2024 US election turns out well. The Democrats have demonstrated that they will do anything to prevent Trump from being president—Tucker Carlson expects them to resort if necessary to assassination.

That would be a trauma greater than the Kennedy assassination.

If Trump does not become president as a result of the election, his supporters will have every reason to assume—indeed, they will know—the system was rigged against them. What will they do?

When democracy is denied, the option left is violence.

Conversely, the Democrats are determined that Trump must not become president. If he becomes president as a result of the election, what will they do? Lose all their determination and go home?

It looks like two trains coming at top speed down the same track, towards each other. It looks like revolution or civil war.

Yet history suggests that God has a special relationship with the US. I recall a friend on Facebook putting out a map showing that “most peaceful countries” correspond closely with “least religious countries.” He thought this discredited religion as a cause of violence. What it showed was that people turn to God when in need, and ignore him otherwise. Countries, as they become peaceful and prosperous, tend to turn away from religion. As do people.

The US has largely bucked that trend. As Europe or Japan have moved to apostasy, levels of religiosity in the US have remained relatively high. In the current crisis in the Catholic Church, Francis finds his traditionalist enemies in America, Eastern Europe, and Africa. With their intellectual centre in America.

Despite promulgating the postmodern madness, the US is not where it began. Traced back, it was a European import in the early and mid-20th century. The heart of America, as I think Cohen saw, remains strong. “he brave, the bold, the battered heart of Chevrolet.”

If civil war now seems inevitable, God has plunged the US into civil war before for a necessary cause. If the left is foolhardy or desperate enough to push it to this point, I believe at least the forces of democracy will win.

And perhaps be a beacon to the rest of the world, as America became in 1776.

As We Were Saying in 1963, Before We Were So Rudely Interrupted...

 

Rumour is that RFK Jr. is going to announce an independent run, possibly with the Libertarian Party. This seems confirmed by a recent teaser video from his campaign.

He absolutely should. This is the only way around the DNC’s subversion of the democratic process. The American primary system is critical to allow for only two parties. If it is subverted, multiple parties are needed to ensure that all concerns are heard.

Some suggest this will take votes away from Trump, assuming Trump is the Republican nominee. They point to polls that show Kennedy actually more popular with Republicans than Democrats.

I think it will hurt Biden, should Biden be the Democratic nominee.

RFK is popular with Republicans. That does not mean he is their first choice. His situation is like that of Erin O’Toole in Canadian politics: the most acceptable Democrat to the other side, but not so much that they have any reason to vote for him instead of their guy.

With Trump, you are either love him, or hate him. Nobody loves Biden. The Biden vote is the anti-Trump vote. If the anti-Trump vote splits, he is in trouble.

Now picture strong runs by RFK Jr. for the Libertarians, and Cornell West for the Greens. 

In theory, Libertarians should take more votes from the right than the left: the left rejects their views out of hand while the right generally accepts them into their more tolerant tent. So Libertarianism is commonly considered to be on the right. However, proving the pudding, 2016 had a strong Libertarian ticket of Gary Johnson and William Weld, two former Republican governors. Trump won that race. He lost (if he did lose) four years later, when there was not a strong Libertarian ticket.

What seems to happen is that right-leaning Libertarians are happy enough to vote the Republican ticket, feeling their views are thus advanced. The Libertarian ticket is left more attractive to left-leaning Libertarians, who have no other home.

I believe it is also possible, in the current climate, that an RFK Libertarian ticket might catch fire. People are unhappy with the choice of Trump or Biden. They sense the system is broken, but may still see Trump as too reckless.  I can imagine Biden running third.

That's the Ticket

 

Canada has a convenient outlet now for escaping the current atmosphere of growing social dysfunction and government overreach: Pierre Poilievre; with Max Bernier too helping move the Overton window. The US seems in worse shape.

Most Americans, according to polls, do not want to see another matchup between Joe Biden and Donald Trump. I don’t either. Biden is senile and grossly corrupt. Trump is divisive, so hated by the other side a second administration is likely to increase rather than prevent social strife. But the American system seems to be herding them towards this choice.

The ideal ticket for the Democrats, for ending the strife, would be RFK Jr., with Tulsi Gabbard for VP. A dream ticket.

The ideal ticket for the Republicans is trickier. The all-out assault on Trump from the left makes it essential now that he be at the top of the ticket, to ensure such tactics do not continue. To balance things out and bring peace to the Republican Party, I say the best pick for running mate would be Chris Christie. Christie is a great attack dog; and accepting the nomination would cancel out his criticisms of Trump for the general. For Trump, it would show magnanimity, which might reassure some with TDS. Get into line, and all may be forgiven.

But neither ticket is going to happen, sadly.

Vivek Ramaswamy

 

Vivek Ramaswamy is getting some traction as a presidential candidate. 

This my not mean much. Most times, dark horses rise and fall in the course of the presidential season. Herman Cain, Howard Dean, Michelle Bachman, Pete Buttigeig, Ben Carson; all had their day.

But just in case, it seems worth pointing out that some of his positions are alarming.

He wants to impose a “civics test” to allow 18 to 24-year-olds to vote. This is plainly discriminatory: the right to vote is inherent and follows from every man’s right to decide what is best for himself. Moreover, the content of any “civics test” could be skewed to exclude voters of a given opinion. No government should be allowed to choose its own voters.

Ramaswamy also wants to extend the use of executive orders. This subverts the legislative branch, reduces checks and balances, and moves the US in the direction of a dictatorship, if an elected dictatorship.

I imagine Ramaswamy is well-intentioned, but some of his instincts are bad.