Why Now, Rishi?

If only it were Justin Trudeau instead of Rishi Sunak. Unexpectedly, trailing by over 20 points in the polls and with some months to go in his mandate, Sunak has called a snap election for July 4. In the rain.

It has taken everyone by surprise, and it makes no sense in usual political terms. The conventional thing would be to hold on in hopes that polls might improve. As they say, a week is a long time in politics. Even at worst, holding off means a few more months to exercise power and to look for your next job.

It has to be that Sunak knows something we don’t know. The more so since this has all the appearances of being a rushed announcement, as though there is some emergency. Cabinet ministers were summoned to a sudden meeting; some of them had to cut trips abroad. Tory backbenchers were not consulted or informed. The announcement was not well staged: in the rain, without an umbrella, with opposition loudspeakers blaring. Sunak did not seem to have any particular campaign theme or message prepared.

It surely has to mean that something dreadful is likely to drop in the next few months. Sunak needs to get the election over with quickly, or the Tories will fare even worse. 

What is likely to be that drastic?

My guess is, it has to do with the Covid vaccines and the rise in mortality since the epidemic. Something may be about to come out; something worse that we have yet heard. Sunak may have seen a preliminary draft of some report.

UK Election Results

My recent election prediction record remains unblemished: wrong again.

I predicted Tory majority.

We have a Tory minority.

I suspect this may be on the whole a good outcome.

Theresa May deserved a solid rebuke, for the cynical election call, for the awful platform and the awful campaign, refusing to debate. And she bore some responsibility as past Home Secretary for the recent terror attacks. Nor did she have any good ideas for stopping them, other than the troubling idea of pulling some civil rights.

On the other hand, Jeremy Corbyn, although a fun figure to vote for to pole the establishment in the eye, really did not look like someone you might want in charge of things.

With these results, May stands rebuked, and will probably have to resign. She should be forced to by her caucus. Yet there is really no risk of Labour coming to power. The Tories have fallen eight seats shy of a majority. The DUP, a natural fit, holds ten. At the same time, the LDP and Sinn Fein have both said there is no way they would form a coalition with Labour.

So the Tories form the next government, but probably soon under someone other than May. The obvious alternative being Boris Johnson, who would be a lot of fun to watch, and might attract a Trump-like, Corbyn-like, stick it in their eye vote. While still actually being a plausible PM.

The most striking result--and nobody seems to be talking about it--is the collapse of the Scottish Nationalist vote. Alex Salmond, former leader, actually lost his seat. And this might be fortunate for Brexit negotiations. It suggests there is no constituency for Scottish independence in the face of Brexit, which frees British negotiators' hands. The SNP actually lost, in the main, to the Conservatives, the Brexit party, suggesting the rebuke was on exactly this issue.

Last Minute UK Election Prediction

Breaking: UK election results, 1837. Lord Melbourne triumphs!

Theresa May majority.

It seems to me ISIS has come in heavily on her side. The two recent terrorist attacks ought to stay the hand of many who might have voted for Corbyn. The polls do not yet show this, but there is often a bit of a delay as it sinks in.

All that said, here is my recent record as a political prognosticator:

I picked Bernier to win the Canadian Conservative leadership.

I picked Clinton to beat Trump.

I thought there was not way Trump would take the Republican nomination in the first place.

I picked Sanders to win the Democratic nomination.

I picked Stephen Harper to win the last Canadian federal election.

So I guess you can put your money down on Corbyn now.