If the Islamic Republic Falls

Iran right now is hell. To keep our hopes up, let’s try to focus on the good things that might come if the regime does fall. For it might very well fall. Trump is honour bound to do his best to bring it down. The darkest hour is just before dawn.

The fall of the Islamist regime could usher in an era of peace across the Middle East. Iran has been subsidizing insurrectionist groups like the Houthis, Hamas, Hezbollah, and more. Without this support, they may evaporate. I think of the effect on the troubles in Northern Ireland when Libya’s Ghaddafi withdrew support. The Abraham Accords show a desire to bury that hatchet in some important quarters. 

Iran might become an ally of Israel again, as it was under the Shah— the Iranians might well be grateful for Israel’s help in overthrowing the Islamist regime. And they could flip from being a sworn enemy of the US to being a strategic regional ally—in Russia’s underbelly.

Russia will have lost a major ally and supplier of weapons for the current war in Ukraine. That might tip the balance.

The example of regime overthrow might also inspire Russians to overthrow Putin as well. Or the Chinese might try to take out Xi.

Along with Venezuela, and domestic supplies, Iran will give the US strong influence in the world oil market. They might be able to use this to exert pressure on China.

Iran might now develop into a prosperous and innovative nation. Under the Shah, they were on a par with Spain. There is a well-educated population, and history gives us many examples of nations that developed quickly after a period of turmoil; the Netherlands gaining independence from Spain, Spain of the Reconquista, Poland after the Berlin Wall fell. Postwar Germany or Japan. Iran’s expertise with drones shows a bit of what they are capable of.

Rumours are that a large proportion of Iranians are secret Christians. This seems plausible. Iran was not that devout before 1979—there was a move under the Shah to promote Zoroastrianism over Islam. The rule of the mullahs might now have broadly discredited Islam in the popular mind. It would be a glorious thing, from my Christian perspective, to see the revival this might become, once the lid is off, perhaps inspiring revivals elsewhere.

It seems likely that the fall of the Islamic Republic will largely discredit the modern ideology of political Islam and global jihad everywhere. The experiment has been tried; it failed. 

Keep on hoping.

Why the Iranian Regime Will Fall

Bullseye.

At this point, I believe Trump has no alternative but to intervene in Iran. He gave a clear warning that he would if the regime began mass killing. This has encouraged the protesters. Now the regime has called his bluff. If he does nothing, he will lose leverage in all future negotiations. The Iranian people will feel betrayed. Aside from the practical considerations, Trump and the world would know he had let the protesters down. That he had wimped out, just as he has accused Obama of doing. 

He must do something big.

But we also can assume it will not be the insertion of US troops at scale. That would be too much for Trump’s base, and Iran is not a country that would be easy to take militarily.

Reports are that the protesters have control of the port of Bandar Abbas. Were I the US, or Israel, or the Gulf States, I would be ferrying in small weapons as quickly as possible, along perhaps with agents and unidentifiable mercenary soldiers. Arm and organize the people for guerilla action, and it becomes much harder for the authorities to repress to restore control. Think Northern Ireland.

But this is probably not spectacular enough for present public relations needs. Trump’s probably going to have to do some bombing. 

He does not want to hit Iranian infrastructure—that would harm the general public. That might help the regime. 

He does not want to hit the Iranian army—they are potential allies. 

He wants to hit IRGC facilities, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard. Better yet—and most like Trump—I see him levelling the homes and haunts of the top leaders of Iran, in hopes of cutting off the regime’s head in a surgical fashion. I suspect he could do this without risk of American casualties by firing cruise missiles from a submarine stationed in the Gulf.

Whatever he does, at this point, his honour almost demands it be enough that the Iranian regime does fall. It cannot be seen to have been in the end ineffective, or Trump loses.

 Let’s see.