RFK Jr.

 

I can’t help being excited by RFK Jr.’s presidential bid. I think, at a minimum, he is going to change the popular discourse dramatically—I think he already has--and ensure that Biden does not win a second term. One way or another, this is going to be historic.

As things stand, Biden and the Democratic Party are trying to fix the nomination for Biden by moving the South Carolina primary up to become the first contest. Iowa and New Hampshire are naturally enough unhappy with this. Moreover, the New Hampshire constitution mandates that NH must go before anyone else. 

So all the Biden campaign can do is refuse to run in these first two contests. That means Kennedy sweeps these first two contests. They can refuse to seat his delegates, but this gets him media and momentum. Since the Republicans are running primaries at the same time, they will not be ignored. Calculating that the Biden campaign can block this momentum with a big win in South Carolina is a gamble.

Meantime, the charges of corruption are gathering around Biden. Meantime, the signs of mental decline are multiplying. But by backing Biden and keeping everyone else out of the race, the Dem establishment has no backup, if Biden falters or becomes unelectable.

They are trying to keep RFK out of the media. But this is not likely to work as well as it did: alternative outlets like Joe Rogan now get much more viewership than the old “mainstream,” and on these alternative platforms, RFK is sought and active. He is highly articulate, he comes across as utterly sincere, he has a compelling case and a compelling personal story.

I myself find it hard to resist the personal story. Those of my generation were permanently traumatized by the assassination of JFK. It was when the postwar promise of America seemed to end, when everything started to go wrong. RFK looked like a chance to get back on track, and then he was assassinated too. It was hard not to believe a conspiracy was involved. Now RFK Jr. looks, to us old fogies, like a possibility to, even at this late date, make it all right again. 

They can try all the dirty tricks they used to keep Bernie Sanders from the nomination, twice. But each time they do this they take a grave risk of alienating their base. They covered for that last time by having Biden adopt a large part of the far-left agenda. But I think they miscalculated. People did not support Bernie Sanders because of his platform. They supported him because he seemed sincere and not a part of the establishment. A lot of strong Sanders supporters are now accused of being on the right: Joe Rogan, Elon Musk, Tulsi Gabbard.

Now RFK has that same ground. It is probably a majority of Democratic voters. Sanders should have won, had he not been blocked, and Sanders was not an attractive candidate—too old, and unknown before he ran. RFK is more attractive, with more compelling issues, and with Kennedy charisma.

Block him as they blocked Sanders? No doubt they can do it, but if they do, I expect they will have gone to the well too many times. RFK comes into the race already looking like a martyr; because his father and his uncle were martyred; because he has been censored for his views on vaccines. Strike him down now, and the consequences could be dire for the Dems. If their base does not defect to the Republicans, Cornell West is running. Rumours are Joe Manchin may run too. That gives alternatives to both left and right. Many more could simply stay at home.

In the meantime, Kennedy is forcing a debate on the Covid vaccine and the lockdowns, which is devastating to the establishment. People will want to vote against the establishment as a first priority. If not RFK, their choice is not going to be Biden.

RFK Jr. on Neil Cavuto

 

Watching RFK Jr. interviewed by Neil Cavuto, I am impressed. It certainly helps to see the variety of crosses behind him. It makes him look like a serious Catholic. I am also impressed by his white bookshelves, or they eerily remind me of those in my grandfather’s house, back when JFK was president and all was right with the world. I’m tripping on the Kennedy nostalgia. But he also came across as sincere and intelligent.

He starts of course with powerful name recognition, and with the equivalent of a respected brand. I see that, even though I was not a fan of his father back in the day. He has nostalgia on his side. Many, amid the current chaos, dream of a return to something that seems like normalcy and decency. This was the illusory appeal of Joe Biden. Kennedy has that to an exponential degree—back to the Kennedy years! Back to Camelot! Back to a day when honour mattered!

I think his speech impediment is also an advantage. Like Chretien’s facial paralysis or Churchill’s stammer, it suggests sincerity and evokes sympathy. As do his sunken cheeks, as does the martyrdom of his father. We feel he has suffered. We believe he can understand our pain.

His longtime anti-vax campaign also seems to me to help him. He fought for an unpopular cause—this demonstrates that he is a man of principle. It marks him as an anti-politician. People are craving someone they can trust, and they can’t trust politicians any longer—this was Trump’s great appeal. Kennedy reinforces that by his manner, at least in this interview. He does not give the impression that he is guarding his words, or calculating them. He answers quickly and directly. This also shows his intelligence, in stark contrast to Biden or Kamala Harris, and dispels any concern, given his anti-vax beliefs, that he is some crackpot.

His history of opposing vaccines positions him as the ideal spokesman against the Covid vaccine mandates. This ought to be a vital issue, and a devastating one, and his presence in the race will force it to come out.

He is wisely appealing to unity. That is a message many want to hear, given the current atmosphere of near-civil war. It was the illusory promise offered by Obama, that got him into the White House.

He is also stealing a page from Trump and the populists by railing against the corporate-government axis.

He also profits from the Democrats’ weak front bench. Biden is senile; the US economy is in a mess under his presidency. Not to mention general chaos in the culture and the streets. Anybody would look better. But Kamala Harris looks incompetent and bubblebrained. Gavin Newsom has objectively done an awful job in California—he was recalled, and people are leaving the state. San Francisco is a war zone. Pete Buttigieg has been awful as Transportation Secretary. J.B. Pritzker is presiding over Chicago dissolving into chaos. Tulsi Gabbard and Andrew Yang, their two most promising candidates last cycle, have left the party.

Unless he is blocked by the party machine, as he is likely to be, I think he has an excellent chance at the nomination.

 If he gets the nomination, I think then he has an excellent chance in a general election.