North Korea Denuclearizes?

Seen in Vienna.

I did not like Trump and did not want him to get the Republican nomination; I would have only voted for him, if I had a vote in US elections, when the choice came down to him or Hillary Clinton. Better the boor than the crook.

But I think by this point, it must be conceded that either 1) Trump is a very good president, 2) Obama was a very bad president, or 3) both.

Kim Jong Un has apparently just agreed to stop nuclear development and denuclearize without preconditions. The theory is that Trump was responsible for this. He called DPRK’s bluff, not offering any gifts to pacify them, as they had always gotten in the past. At the same time, his sabre-rattling on trade with China convinced the Chinese to put the screws to Kim for the sake of a better deal.

This is not the first sudden, shocking, happy foreign policy development under Trump. ISIS is just about gone in Syria and Iraq; it was born and grew to global prominence on Obama’s watch. Russia had already announced its intention to leave Syria, but Trump has also managed to humiliate Putin by his combined air strike last week, probably convincing Russia to pull in its horns elsewhere as well. Notably, virtually all of Putin’s recent adventurism, since the invasion of Georgia in 2008, has been under Obama’s administration. Russia had to feel pretty confident in all of it that the US would stay passive. When you get right down to it, Russia has a GDP equivalent to Italy’s. If there were a general war, and given that it were not nuclear, Russia could not stand up for long toe-to-toe to Britain or France, let alone NATO. It is spectacular what Putin has been able to achieve. It is hard to believe it was possible without some American connivance.

The economy and the stock market in the US has been booming since Trump took office. Some are saying this has everything to do with Trump’s policy of cutting regulations, and the Republican tax bill. It is certainly telling that, under Obama, Canada regularly did better than the US economically. Now, suddenly, under Trump, Canada is lagging the US on the economic figures.

Trump seems to have made a substantial difference quickly and at little cost.

Many of the things that Obama did, especially in foreign policy, seemed jaw-droppingly wrong at the time. With the collapse in oil prices, the US had a golden opportunity to force Iran and Cuba—long supported and subsidized by Venezuela, since the Soviet bloc stopped funding them—into important concessions. What Obama did instead was to offer them important concessions from the US at just the moment they could best prop up those regimes and save their hides. And, of course, offered no support to opposition movements in Iran.

The US role in overthrowing Gaddhafi in Libya too seems to have been handled as badly as it could possibly be handled, in terms of US interests. If the US was going to get involved, in the first place, by the announced Obama policy of “leading from behind,” they simply paid for the privilege of handing away their prestige to others. If they were going to do what it took to overthrow Gaddhafi, they should also have had some plan in place for his replacement, or some expectation of who or what would take his place. Instead, humiliatingly, they could not even protect their consulate or their Ambassador.

Obama also threw away a huge amount of American prestige in Syria, by declaring a “red line” over chemical weapons, and then backing down as soon as it was crossed. Handing prestige over to Russia for supposedly brokering the deal. Besides showing any allies the US could not be trusted, this probably intensified and prolonged the Syrian civil war and its bloodbath, by leaving a vacuum for lesser powers to get engaged. Also boosting the prestige and interests of Iran, Russia, and now Turkey, at US expense.

And this US-sanctioned chaos over Syria and Libya provoked a refugee crisis that now threatens to overwhelm and permanently change Europe. And has already played a part in breaking up the EU.

All thanks to Obama’s administration.

Even Trump’s boorishness seems to be a wise strategy. Civil discourse is broken in the US; whether or not he was directly responsible, this certainly developed under Obama. You cannot play by the rules any longer, or you just get bullied. Trump seems expert at not getting bullied: he will stand put and fight toe to toe with any attacker. At the same time, he does not seem (so far) to bully anyone else. Again, this is in contrast to Obama, who presented a smiling face, but had the IRS, the Education Department, the Justice Department, and maybe the FBI, bully people in dubiously legal ways.

I sometimes wonder whether God gives the USA his special providential care. He sends along improbable people like Trump when they are needed.

Predictions

Past experience has shown me that I have a truly appalling record at making predictions for the upcoming year. Fortunately, last year, I was too ill to make any. Because they would have been wrong.

A lot of people have very bad premonitions for the coming year. A lot of people have high hopes. I think odds are that there will continue, as last year, to be many surprises. This is happening because of technology. The world is changing. We are at a moment at least as important as the invention of printing. More probably, as the invention of writing. It is bound and sure to have wide-ranging political, social, cultural, and economic ramifications, and we have only begun to see them.

Self-driving cars are almost here. Farewell to much of the expense and difficulty of travelling. Farewell to most of the human toll of traffic accidents. Farewell to the need for any form of government public transit. Farewell for the need for parking space. And farewell to the single most common job in North America.

I come from the future. Or rather, the past of the future. Or the future of the past. In any case, I am a present, right?

The rest of the working class will be hit as hard. Robotics will kill most manual jobs. Checkout cashiers are already no longer needed. Drones can already replace deliverymen. As robots become cheaper than even Chinese workers, manufacturing may begin to re-relocate.

Nor are only working class jobs in danger. The Trump revolution was a part of a general revolution against the professional “elite.” This was the biggest part of the printing revolution, and it is bound to be much bigger now. Doctors are actually now obsolete; they hang on because of their social power, but it will not last. Lawyers are obsolete. Teachers are obsolete. Journalists are obsolete. Accountants are obsolete. No doubt engineers are obsolete. Why are the rest of us going to keep giving them money and power when they serve no useful function?

This I can foresee. But how much of it is going to happen in the next year? That I cannot foresee.

Part of Trump’s victory was a revolt against political correctness. I think political correctness, feminism, and the LGBT lobby are truly dead now. From now on, they will be a laughing stock, and it will not take long before everyone will be embarrassed to identify with them. This is the sort of thing that dies fast.

Part of Trump’s victory also was a revolt against free trade. I have always believed in free trade. I still do; I think that it will continue, that Trump is just bargaining for a better deal. If not, I expect economic trouble worldwide. Even if free trade hurts some producers, it helps others; and it helps all consumers. Not everyone is a producer; everyone is a consumer. This is before we even begin to look at the issue of comparative advantage. Or the obvious moral point that all men are brothers, and there is a basic immorality in taking jobs away from the relatively poor in Indonesia to give them to the relatively rich in Michigan.

As for immigration, I have in the past been generally in favour—on the grounds that if we do not bring the workers to Canada, the jobs will just go to cheap labour elsewhere. That may no longer hold, with the growing capabilities of robotics. Robots in Canada may soon be cheaper than people in China. The need to keep our population of active workers growing may also soon no longer apply. What happens if improvements in life expectancy, entirely probable with the unlocking of the human genome, begin to kick in? Labour may become irrelevant, and only capital matter. Good joke on Marx.

One thing catches my eye this January. Trump has tweeted “North Korea just stated that it is in the final stages of developing a nuclear weapon capable of reaching parts of the U.S. It won't happen!”

Is he serious? How is he going to prevent it?

Commentators I have seen all say this will require tougher sanctions, or sitting down at the table with Kim Jong Un, or maybe infecting them with some computer virus. A preemptive strike, of course, is out of the question.

But is it?

Surely the US, if it has the will and is prepared to accept the possible repercussions, has the capability to take out whatever North Korea has in a preemptive strike. The land area of North Korea is much less than that of, say, Iran, and every inch of it has been under close US surveillance since 1950. The Americans have bases just across the border. What Israel could do in Iraq, surely the US can do in North Korea.

Yes, this could mean war. Yes, North Korea has artillery that could hit Seoul.

On the other hand, it seems certain that, in any all-out war, the North would lose--so long as they still do not have nuclear weapons. Their only hope would be blitzkrieg, as they tried in the Korean War. It almost worked then because the South had no air power and no anti-tank weaponry. That is not going to be repeated. And the reason they had no anti-tank weaponry then still holds—the Korean Peninsula is lousy blitzkrieg terrain. Think Switzerland.

The Jucheists have been playing the game of provocation just short of war for over sixty years. Because it pays off for them. They shake down for some handout to stop, and then they can repeat the cycle in a few years. Perhaps it would be healthy to call their bluff. Their own actions suggest it is a bluff. Do the leaders in Pyongyang really want to die?

Luckily, Gananoque remains out of range.

Moreover, isn’t it, on balance, more dangerous to do nothing, and allow the DPRK’s hostile and unpredictable government to develop the ability to deliver a nuclear warhead on Los Angeles or San Francisco? Then they could really go for the Danegeld.

Would China react? I doubt it. They only engaged last time when the UN forces got close to their own border. China is on the rise; the longer they can postpone any confrontation, the better their chances. So long as their basic interests are not threatened, they are better off keeping the peace and keeping their economy growing. They have distanced themselves enough from the Pyongyang regime that their prestige is not on the line here, if they stay out. A harshly-worded protest is about the most I would expect.

At the same time, such a strike might be a useful shot across the bow to Iran and Russia, who have been acting pushy in the last few years. It would reassure American allies everywhere.

Trump is no doubt setting the table at this point to scare North Korea into pulling back on their nuclear program. And, more importantly, to give China fair warning. But the Kim regime is used to getting away with this stuff, and is entirely capable of miscalculating. If they do not pull back, hitting them hard would be the best way to set the table for the next negotiation with the next adversary.

It’s the art of the deal.

So here’s one prediction: Trump bombs North Korea.

Evil May Not Be Banal, But It Is Certainly Dumb

Vladimir Putin now seems to have made a bad miscalculation in invading the Ukraine. Fracking is now rapidly driving down oil prices, taking away both his political leverage and his income. Because he has alienated almost everybody, there will be no bailout package, unless perhaps from China. Because everyone knows this, the run on the currency and the economy is that much more terrible.

Did anyone else notice that his face looked very puffy in his recent press conference? I suspect Putin's health is suffering from the stress. He must know his head is on the block.

But how was he so stupid as to get himself into this situation? It's not as though the effects of fracking were not inevitable and predictable a few years ago. Yet he chose to alienate everyone at just the wrong moment.

In related news, fracking is probably also why Cuba and the US are suddenly reopening relations. The lower oil price is killing Venezuelan government finances, already in grievous shape. Venezuela had been subsidizing Cuba, saving it from a desperate fate after the collapse of its Soviet sponsors. Now Venezuela in turn is forced to stop doing this. So Cuba is probably obliged to make some deal the US before the bottom falls out, in hopes of ending the embargo and boosting their economy. Perhaps even for the sake of having a basket for their case to fall into. The shocking thing is that Obama got so little in the negotiations at this point.

Iran will surely soon also show the strain. Just at a time they too have alienated everyone with their nuclear programme.

At the same time, cheaper oil is bound to boost the US, first of all, and the developed West generally.

It seems almost like supernatural aid, doesn't it? God suddenly drops a miracle in the US's lap, like when the Berlin Wall suddenly fell.

That may be so, but a simpler explanation is simply that evil, and evil people, are also necessarily stupid. Because they are stupid, they are always playing the short game, unable to calculate things very far forward, so that over time they are guaranteed to lose. An obvious example was Saddam's fight to the death in Iraq to protect a stockpile of weapons of mass destruction that it turned out he mostly did not have. He probably genuinely believed he had them. Dictators who rule by fear and corruption necessarily become sourrounded by people who will never tell them the truth, but only what they think they want to hear, and what they think will be to their own personal benefit.

North Korea's cyber attack on Sony falls into the same category: “B” for “boneheaded.” For no material gain, they have revealed their current cyber sabotage capabilities and alerted the US public to the threat. This guarantees that Western defences will be good and solid if and when it really matters to North Korea. And rather than blow their cover while accomplishinng nothing, they have probably accomplished the very thing they wanted to prevent. Virtually everyone in the West is now dying to see “The Interview,” it has had the best free publicity campaign a movie could ever get, and even if Sony is too crazy to release it on DVD, North Korea has effectively laid down a challenge to all hackers everywhere to ensure that it is indeed widely seen by any means necessary.

Long-term, does North Korea believe it can really win a hackers' war against the US?

Clearly, there is no long-term thinking involved.

Everywhere and always, the devil has the tactical advantage. Everywhere and always, St. Michael and the angels have the strategic advantage.