O'Leary's Gambit

 

An obvious political opportunity has emerged for someone in Canada. A new and vital issue is suddenly on the table: should Canada join the US? 

All the current national party leaders, Liberal, Conservative, NDP and Green, have adamantly rejected the idea.

This leaves an opening—indeed a need—for a Continentalist Party, prepared to negotiate the possibility.

Some will call this treason. But no more treasonous than Newfoundlanders campaigning for union with Canada prior to 1949; not to mention similar political campaigns in PEI, Nova Scotia, New Brunswick, or British Columbia in their turn. Canada is founded on a celebration of unification. This is entirely within that tradition.

The standard political commentators will scoff—according to opinion polls, they will point out, joining the US has only 15% support in Canada.

Just as they pointed out that Poilievre could never win an election, because his views are too extreme. O’Toole and Scheer supposedly had the wise and winning approach: triangulate, and stay as close to the views of the current polls as possible, to win the centre.

Leaders—like Trump or Poilievre—lead. They do not follow the polls, they change opinions. All that is needed for such a party to prosper, I suspect, is a well-spoken, charismatic leader.

The more so since it looks as though the left is in collapse, in Canada and around the developed world. This leaves a vacancy for an opposition party founded on principles different from the current left-right divide, in Canada and around the world as well.

Indeed, the Trump unification drive seems to already be stirring echoes, if X is any indication, in Britain, New Zealand, and Australia, with locals suggesting this would be a good idea for their country too.

This sort of a shift in the political debate has happened before. At the beginning of the 20th century, socialism and “progressivism” emerged, and the old electoral divide between liberal and conservative was supplanted everywhere by a new division between conservative-liberal “free marketers” and Marxist “welfare state”/“New Deal” parties. In Quebec, for a generation or more, the divide was between sovereigntist and federalist. As we see in Scotland, Wales, or Puerto Rico.

This new divide in Canada would be similar to that in Quebec: should Canada stay sovereign, or merge with the States? 

All that is needed is a well-spoken, charismatic leader who sees the opportunity.

Kevin O’Leary is an entrepreneur. He is reputed to be skilled in spotting business opportunities; that is what he does on TV. He has always been interested in politics—he ran unsuccessfully for the Conservative leadership some years ago, failing by his estimation due to his lack of French. He is charismatic and telegenic.

I think he sees this opportunity, and may be on his way to forming such a new political party. He was shrewd enough to be first off the mark with a proposal for union, making himself the spokesman for the movement.

What O’Leary is promoting is not annexation, but an arrangement similar to the European Union. A shared passport, open borders, free movement of people and goods. 

But this looks like little more than a sales technique. The EU, after all, is based on the premise of an “ever closer union.” The goal is a United States or Europe; it is only a question of how quickly it can be completed.

Furthermore, the US is not going to agree to surrendering any of its sovereignty to some higher body. The US is historically hostile to such ideas; and there is no reason for them to treat Canada as an equal partner.

And furthermore, the US’s prime stated goal is a unified defense perimeter and tight external border. This will already require a closer union than the EU has yet achieved. 

No, no matter how it is framed, the governing authority for such a union would be the US government. All O’Leary is negotiating for is autonomous territory status instead of statehood.  A worse deal for Canadians, but perhaps more palatable. At least until he can acclimatize Canadians to the new view out the Overton window.

The 51st State

 

Tucker Carlson has a large and enthusiastic audience. It seems likely his suggestion that Canada needs to be liberated will generate some attention in the US.

Which causes me to ponder: if the US invaded Canada, how would Canadians react? Would American GIs be greeted as liberators?

A few years ago, I would have thought the idea absurd. But not so much anymore. I noticed that the Freedom Convoy supporters, and attendees at other protests since, have been flying "friendship" flags that combine the Canadian and American flags. Why this at a protest—unless it is a call for unification?

There is no political party in Canada that supports the idea. You might think this proves there is no popular support. Yet that is neither here nor there. Political parties in Canada have a history of withholding choices from the public. Meech Lake, abortion, gay marriage, aboriginal rights,  come to mind. There are some matters the Canadian elite does not want people voting on.

The working class stiffs in the Freedom Convoy are probably aware that they pay a premium for Canadian independence. American wages are higher. The American cost of living is lower. The work opportunities are more plentiful. 

For the working man, and for the poor, there needs to be some good reason for Canada.

The original justification for English Canada was to preserve the ties to the monarchy, and to British traditions. This justification has, however, been hollowing out ever since 1867. Nobody thinks of Canada any longer as particularly “British.” No; it is now “multicultural,” and the elite generally dislike anything British. Down to renaming streets and schools.

Yet the old rationale h not been replaced by a distinct Canadian identity. This has happened in French Canada, and there was a concerted effort to develop a distinct Canadian culture beginning with D’Arcy McGee, who foresaw the need, and continuing up to the 1960s or so. 

Then, just as it seemed to be coming together, the elite crushed it. 

It has been destroyed by “multiculturalism,” now actually enshrined in the Canadian constitution. Any authentically Canadian culture is now condemned as "racist," or "white supremacist"; Justin Trudeau declares that in Canada, “there is no mainstream.”

With no Britishness, and no local culture, there is no reason for Canada to exist as a separate nation. The economics are entirely in favour of joining the USA. At the same time, this seems increasingly advisable to protect our civil rights from rogue government. Not to mention protection from less friendly and more oppressie foreign powers, like China.

Our government and our elite may have murdered Canada.