Trump's Nobel

Napoleon is said to have preferred his generals to be lucky rather than good. Trump seems to be lucky. He is now credited with a major breakthrough in the Middle East, a peace deal between Israel and the UAE. But peace in the Middle East has been in the cards for a while.

Once upon a time peace in Ireland seemed impossible too; then it just happened.

Not hard to understand why. The Soviet Union collapsed; for a time Libya took over sponsorship of the IRA, but when they lost interest in turn, guerilla fighting ceased to be a viable career option.

The strife in the Middle East, as well as Islamist terrorism, has been funded by oil revenues. For the past few years, thanks to fracking, oil revenues have been drying up.

War is a luxury the Arab world can no longer afford.