The Crazy Season

All heck is busting loose in the US presidential race right now on both the right and on the left, a rebellion of voters comparable in its own small way to events like the Arab Spring. On the left, there is a groundswell in favour of Bernie Sanders, to the horror of most of the Democratic establishment. On the right, there is a groundswell in favour of Donald Trump, to the horror of most of the Republican establishment.

This may be the way of the future. Ordinary voters are not inclined to listen to their betters any more.

Of the two, the Sanders candidacy is the more credible. Sanders has a reasonable resume for the presidency. I have said for some time that Hillary Clinton was unlikely to get the nomination. Certainly, she does not deserve a coronation. Has she really ever done anything other than to marry well? A dark horse was needed, and the darker the better. Sanders is great: too old for the race, and looks old. He is a self-declared socialist, a proverbially impossible sell in America. I expect he will be the nominee, a nice poke in the eye to everyone.

But not nearly so crazy as the Trump boom. The Republicans already had a wide field to choose from, with a wide range of views represented. And Trump has a weird resume for the presidency. But who cares? The great thing about Trump is that every single member of the political establishment hates him, Republicans just as much as Democrats. Wshat could be a better recommendation?

Unlike Sanders, Trump is likely to light a fuse to his toes and blow himself up. It is all very well to enjoy his straight-talking, but there is a reason politicians are circumspect. He is bound to say something beyond the pale soon, if he hasn't already. He may have the money to stay in regardless, but in the end, money does not buy votes.

His presence in the race should actually help the more electable of the Republican candidates. He is running to the right, and, because of his celebrity, is likely to draw votes and press coverage away from other candidates in the early going. That makes it difficult for any other right-wing candidate to survive the early going and be there later to coalesce around. Leaving the nomination to someone running toward the centre.

Most likely matchup at this point: Jeb Bush vs. Bernie Sanders. Who will win? Conventional wisdom says the Republicans.

I wouldn't count on it.