Why the Polls Were Wrong

Why were the polls so wrong in the recent British election?

Most of the speculation I have seen has centred on the “Shy Tory syndrome.” Similar to the “Bradley effect,” this is the possibility that right-leaning voters, assuming they are being polled by a media biased against them, hide their true intentions until they get to the ballot box.

It seems to me this cannot be the explanation here. For if it were “Shy Tory syndrome,” the exit polling ought to have been similarly biased. But it was the exit polling that first revealed the discrepancy.

I believe it must instead have been a case of the undecided falling disproportionately to the Conservatives at the last moment.

Thesis: a large number of voters in England were holding back on their choice waiting to see how strong the Scots Nats looked. They wanted to vote Labour, or UKIP, or Lib Dem, but their first priority was to stave off the possibility of a coalition including the Scots Nats. In the end, the only way to prevent this was indeed to vote Tory.

And in doing this, as believers in a United Kingdom, they were surely wise. Ed Miliband had of course dismissed the possibility of a coalition with the Scots Nats. As a politician, he had to do that, and the voters were smart enough to realize this, and largely discount it. It would mean nothing if it turned out that the only possible parliamentary majority, saving a grand coalition, would have to include the Scots Nats. Even if there was no formal coalition, Miliband would have to meet many of their demands. And their stated objective was to break up the UK.

This was exactly the scenario the nation was facing if the final polls were right.

In light of that, a lot of sensible people voted at the last minute for the Tories.