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It looks as if Jeb Bush has decided to run. This immediately makes him the favourite for the Republican nomination. I hold to my prediction from before: the Republican nominee will not be Chris Christie, and the Democratic nominee will not be Hillary Clinton.
I also expect Mitt Romney to run, and I think he has a good shot. Here's why: Bush apparently plans to run to the centre, so t hat he can have a better shot in the general election. This could work, because the right looks fragmented: Cruz, Paul, Rubio. Still, Bush runs a serious risk of losing the nomination to some firebrand to the right. Solution: Mitt Romney enters and runs to the right, as he did in 2008. As worst, this further fragments the right. But this also provides the establishment with a backup plan, if the right will not sit still for another centrist run. And if Romney loses to Bush, he becomes an ideal establishment VP pick, so as to pacify the right.
I also expect Mitt Romney to run, and I think he has a good shot. Here's why: Bush apparently plans to run to the centre, so t hat he can have a better shot in the general election. This could work, because the right looks fragmented: Cruz, Paul, Rubio. Still, Bush runs a serious risk of losing the nomination to some firebrand to the right. Solution: Mitt Romney enters and runs to the right, as he did in 2008. As worst, this further fragments the right. But this also provides the establishment with a backup plan, if the right will not sit still for another centrist run. And if Romney loses to Bush, he becomes an ideal establishment VP pick, so as to pacify the right.
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