Events in North Korea

Kim Jong Un: Palm reading.

It looks as if something is happening in North Korea.

Kim Jong Un has not been seen in public since Sept. 2. There have been rumours spread by defectors that there has been a coup.

Now, if I understand aright, he has not appeared at the reviewing stand for the grand parade ending the celebrations of the party anniversary.

Very well, it might be true that he is simply ill. But then he must be very ill not to show up for this event. It can`t be just a pulled tendon, or gout. Not for a full month and more. It is destabilizing for him not to be there. And since he is only 31, and presumably surrounded by the best medical treatment available, the likelihood of serious illness is small.

One Korea expert has recently opined that there is really no chance of a coup, because legitimacy in North Korea is too completely tied to the Kim family. There is no other source of legitimacy available; to oust him would mean chaos.

Exactly. That fits with the thesis that there has already been a coup. It has not been publicly announced because to do so would be to court chaos. Instead, whoever is really in charge must indefinitely preserve the illusion that Kim is still in control. But Kim cannot be trusted to toe the line in public. So the absent leader.

If I understand the report I just heard on Al Jazeera correctly, Kim was not the only no-show at the anniversary parade. There also was not the traditional parade of weaponry.

Why not--unless there is strife within the leadership? Does anyone else remember how Anwar Sadat met his end? If the military leadership cannot be fully trusted, there is the danger that one unit or another might, in the middle of a parade, suddenly turn their weapons on the reviewing stand.

So, I say Kim Jong Un is probably no longer in power.

If I am right, this combines interestingly with recent events in Hong Kong. Pure coincidence, I'm sure, but together they risk being the perfect storm for the Chinese leadership as well. It only takes one match. Here are two.