Chinese Fuse Lit

A Hong Kong demonstration back in quieter days.

Something is happening in Hong Kong which may be more important than we yet realize. For the last week, there have been massive street protests demanding democracy.

Let's be frank. It is not really possible for the Chinese government to grant Hong Kong full democracy, any more than it would have been for the British in their day. To grant a colony full democracy is to grant it independence. The mother regime, in this case not itself a democracy, must retain some say, or it simply loses Hong Kong. Yet the protestors say this is unacceptable.

So what is going to happen? Every day the Hong Kong protests continue, there is a risk that they will spill over into mainland China. We saw how quickly social media can make this kind of thing happen, in the recent “Arab Spring.” Then things could get quickly beyond the Chinese government's ability to control.

It looks as if they have no choice but to crack down hard on the Hong Kong demonstrations if they continue. But if they do, it would make Tiananmen Square look trivial by comparison: this would be in full view of the world, and it would change the nature of Hong Kong suddenly and dramatically.

One way or another, I will not be surprised if all hell breaks loose.